Common opening mistakes at 1200–1399 Elo — and how to punish them

Lichess players rated 1200–1399 (the 1200s band; ≈650–950 on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.

71% of Lichess players rated 1200–1399 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 7 moves (1.5M games, a lower bound).

The three highest for players rated 1200–1399 are the Vienna Gambit (71%), the King's Gambit (60%) and the Budapest Gambit (47%). 9 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (under 1200); the Two Knights Defense stands furthest above its place there, number 10 here against number 15.

70 openings, ranked for players rated 1200–1399

#OpeningMake a mistakeWin rateCostliest slipPunish it
1Vienna GambitC29 · for White71%within 7 moves · 1.5M games58% for White+13 pts well prepared64% win chance after move 113…exf4 46.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3
2King's GambitC30 · for White60%within 9 moves · 9.3M games54% for White+17 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 112…Nc6 23.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3
3Budapest GambitA52 · for Black47%within 11 moves · 291K games49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games3.d5 15.6% play itMistaketheir better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5
4Scotch GameC45 · for White45%within 10 moves · 8.5M games52% for White+11 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 115…Nf6 28.5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Qf6the answer: 6.e5 Qe7 7.Be3
5Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black38%within 11 moves · 315K games44% for Black+11 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 117.e3 36% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e4the answer: 7…b5 8.a4 Bb4
6Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black33%within 10 moves · 45M games47% for Black+12 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 112.e5 18.5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exd5the answer: 2…c5 3.d4 cxd4
7Scotch GambitC44 · for White28%within 11 moves · 1.6M games55% for White+14 pts well prepared60% win chance after move 115…dxc3 68.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+
8King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White27%within 8 moves · 184K games53% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games3…Bc5 9.7% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: c6the answer: 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Qh5+
9Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black26%within 10 moves · 5.4M games45% for Black+16 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 112.Nf3 9.2% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: e5the answer: 2…Nxe4 3.Bc4 d5
10Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black23%within 10 moves · 17M games45% for Black+15 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 118.Ba4 53.7% play itMistaketheir better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4
11Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black23%within 11 moves · 19M games45% for Black+17 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 113.Bc4 18.4% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5
12Modern BenoniA60 · for Black23%within 10 moves · 96K games44% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games4.dxe6 15.5% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc3the answer: 4…fxe6 5.Nc3 d5
13Italian GameC50 · for White22%within 10 moves · 48M games51% for White+13 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 113…Nd4 5.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bc5the answer: 4.Nxd4 exd4 5.O-O
14French DefenseC00 · for Black22%within 11 moves · 8.3M games49% for Black+11 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 115.Bb5 16.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nf3the answer: 5…Qa5 6.Bxc6+ bxc6
15Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White22%within 10 moves · 677K games51% for White+12 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 114…e5 12.6% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 5.Bc4 Nf6 6.Nf3
16Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White21%within 10 moves · 2.6M games51% for White+15 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 115…Nf6 21.8% play itMistake · wins a piecetheir better move: Bg4the answer: 6.Nxe5 Bd6 7.Nf3
17Four Knights GameC47 · for White19%within 11 moves · 17M games48% for White+10 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 115…Nxd4 49.9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4
18Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White18%within 6 moves · 150K games48% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games2…e6 11.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4
19Modern DefenseB06 · for Black17%within 10 moves · 10M games47% for Black+14 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 113.e5 31.2% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc3the answer: 3…d6 4.f4 dxe5
20Danish GambitC21 · for White15%within 10 moves · 2.5M games54% for White+11 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 115…f6 6.8% play itMistaketheir better move: Bb4+the answer: 6.Nc3 Bb4 7.Ne2
21Benko GambitA57 · for Black14%within 10 moves · 43K games47% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games4.Nc3 13.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6
22Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White13%within 10 moves · 203K games52% for Whitewell prepared: too few games57% win chance after move 115…Bf5 19.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: e6the answer: 6.Qb3 Qb6 7.cxd5
23Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black13%within 10 moves · 24M games49% for Black+7 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 112.Bc4 11.5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.exd5 cxd5
24Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black10%within 10 moves · 311K games46% for Blackwell prepared: too few games43% win chance after move 114.Bf4 5.7% play itMistaketheir better move: cxd5
25Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black10%within 9 moves · 685K games47% for Blackwell prepared: too few games47% win chance after move 115.O-O 5.4% play itMistaketheir better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5
26Slav DefenseD15 · for Black9%within 10 moves · 4.2M games45% for Black+8 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 113.c5 5.7% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf3
27Sicilian KanB41 · for Black9%within 10 moves · 142K games51% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games5.e5 3.4% play itMistaketheir better move: c4
28Evans GambitC51 · for White9%within 10 moves · 681K games54% for White+15 pts well prepared59% win chance after move 115…Nxb4 24% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: a6the answer: 6.a5 Bc5 7.c3
29English OpeningA10 · for White9%within 10 moves · 16M games51% for White+10 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 112…c6 5.9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d4
30Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White8%within 10 moves · 30M games51% for White+13 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 113…Nf6 25.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.Nxe5 O-O 5.d4
31French WinawerC15 · for Black8%within 11 moves · 301K games46% for Blackwell prepared: too few games45% win chance after move 114.f3 2.9% play itMistaketheir better move: e5
32Ruy LopezC60 · for White8%within 10 moves · 22M games51% for White+13 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 114…a6 15.5% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5
33Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black8%within 10 moves · 13M games46% for Black+10 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 113.e5 11.3% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Nc3the answer: 3…dxe5 4.dxe5 Qxd1+
34Marshall AttackC89 · for Black7%within 11 moves · 6.6K games—10.cxd4 47.2% play itBlunder · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 10…dxe4
35London SystemD00 · for White7%within 10 moves · 157M games51% for White+8 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 111…e5 7.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 2.dxe5 Nc6 3.Nf3
36Réti OpeningA04 · for White7%within 11 moves · 319K games49% for White+9 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 113…e5 6.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: g6
37Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White7%within 10 moves · 4.8M games49% for White+9 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 114…c5 4.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e6
38Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black6%within 11 moves · 539K games50% for Black+7 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 116.Bf4 2.7% play itBlundertheir better move: Be2
39King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black6%within 11 moves · 1.1M games47% for Black+8 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 115.e5 5% play itMistaketheir better move: Be2
40French TarraschC03 · for White4%within 11 moves · 114K games52% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games4…cxd4 6.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exd5
41Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White3%within 10 moves · 261K games51% for White+3 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 114…Bb4 2.1% play itBlundertheir better move: exd5
42Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black3%within 10 moves · 529K games46% for Black+11 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 114.e4 2.9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf3
43Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 150K games49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games5.c5 3.7% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxd5
44Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 63K games35% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games6.d3 3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d4
45Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 269K games49% for Black+8 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 116.Bf4 2.5% play itMistaketheir better move: Be3
46Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black3%within 9 moves · 25M games45% for Black+9 pts well prepared41% win chance after move 114.d5 7% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Nc3the answer: 4…Nxe4 5.Bd3 Nf6
47Classical SicilianB56 · for Black2%within 10 moves · 236K games48% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games6.Bd3 2.3% play itBlundertheir better move: Bg5
48Vienna GameC25 · for White2%within 10 moves · 15M games51% for White+12 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 113…Bb4 5.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 4.Qh5 g6 5.Qf3
49Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black2%within 10 moves · 52M games49% for Black+11 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 113.d4 17.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5
50Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black2%within 11 moves · 498K games50% for Black+12 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 116.Nxc6 25.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nc3the answer: 6…dxc6 7.Qxd8+ Kxd8
51Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White2%within 10 moves · 2.0M games51% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 115…dxc3 19.9% play itBlunder · wins material · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 6.Qxd5 cxb2 7.Bxb2
52Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 527K games48% for Black+10 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 116.Bd3 3.2% play itBlundertheir better move: Be3
53King's Indian AttackA05 · for White1%within 10 moves · 11K games—8…Bd7 8.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 9.e5 Nd5 10.Qe2
54Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White1%within 10 moves · 471K games47% for White+6 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 116…O-O-O 5.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d5the answer: 7.d4 cxd4 8.cxd4
55Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White1%within 9 moves · 704K games49% for White+5 pts well prepared50% win chance after move 115…c5 7.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5
56Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 9.7M games41% for Black+15 pts well prepared37% win chance after move 114.Bg5 5.4% play itMistaketheir better move: e3
57Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 1.4M games49% for White+12 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 115…Qb6 2.7% play itMistaketheir better move: e5
58Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 40K games—6.Bg5 2.1% play itMistaketheir better move: d5
59Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black<1%within 9 moves · 2.2M games46% for Black+11 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 114.c5 2.2% play itMistaketheir better move: Nf3
60Colle SystemD05 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 1.9M games51% for White+6 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 116…c4 17.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4
61Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 5.1M games43% for Black+17 pts well prepared42% win chance after move 116.Re1 2.9% play itMistaketheir better move: Bxc6
62French AdvanceC02 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 6.2M games47% for White+14 pts well prepared50% win chance after move 117…Nge7 17.4% play itMistaketheir better move: Na5the answer: 8.Bxc4 dxc4 9.Nxc4
63Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 59K games51% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games9.f5 11.6% play itMistaketheir better move: Be3the answer: 9…Qb6 10.Be3 e5
64Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 92K games49% for Black+10 pts well prepared50% win chance after move 1111.f3 6.6% play itMistaketheir better move: Bxb5the answer: 11…fxe4 12.fxe4 Qh4+
65Torre AttackA46 · for White<1%within 9 moves · 3.1M games49% for White+8 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 114…g5 2.3% play itMistaketheir better move: c5
66Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 2.5M games45% for Black+8 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 116.e4 2.1% play itMistaketheir better move: e3
67Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 3.6K games———
68Closed SicilianB23 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 3.9M games47% for White+12 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11——
69Catalan OpeningE01 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 29K games———
70Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 77K games47% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games——

Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.

Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.

Frequently asked questions

71% of Lichess players rated 1200–1399 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 7 moves (1.5M games, a lower bound). That is the top of this page’s ranking; the table lists every opening we teach in the same order, with the slip that costs the most and the answer to it.

Your games already show which of these openings you actually reach — the trainer ranks this list for your own rating and drills the lines behind it.

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