Common opening mistakes at 1200–1399 Elo — and how to punish them
Lichess players rated 1200–1399 (the 1200s band; ≈650–950 on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.
71% of Lichess players rated 1200–1399 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 7 moves (1.5M games, a lower bound).
The three highest for players rated 1200–1399 are the Vienna Gambit (71%), the King's Gambit (60%) and the Budapest Gambit (47%). 9 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (under 1200); the Two Knights Defense stands furthest above its place there, number 10 here against number 15.
70 openings, ranked for players rated 1200–1399
| # | Opening | Make a mistake | Win rate | Costliest slip | Punish it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vienna GambitC29 · for White | 71%within 7 moves · 1.5M games | 58% for White+13 pts well prepared64% win chance after move 11 | 3…exf4 46.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3 |
| 2 | King's GambitC30 · for White | 60%within 9 moves · 9.3M games | 54% for White+17 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 2…Nc6 23.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3 |
| 3 | Budapest GambitA52 · for Black | 47%within 11 moves · 291K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 3.d5 15.6% play itMistake | their better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5 |
| 4 | Scotch GameC45 · for White | 45%within 10 moves · 8.5M games | 52% for White+11 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nf6 28.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Qf6the answer: 6.e5 Qe7 7.Be3 |
| 5 | Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black | 38%within 11 moves · 315K games | 44% for Black+11 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 11 | 7.e3 36% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e4the answer: 7…b5 8.a4 Bb4 |
| 6 | Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black | 33%within 10 moves · 45M games | 47% for Black+12 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 2.e5 18.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5the answer: 2…c5 3.d4 cxd4 |
| 7 | Scotch GambitC44 · for White | 28%within 11 moves · 1.6M games | 55% for White+14 pts well prepared60% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 68.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+ |
| 8 | King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White | 27%within 8 moves · 184K games | 53% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 3…Bc5 9.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: c6the answer: 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Qh5+ |
| 9 | Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black | 26%within 10 moves · 5.4M games | 45% for Black+16 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 2.Nf3 9.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: e5the answer: 2…Nxe4 3.Bc4 d5 |
| 10 | Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black | 23%within 10 moves · 17M games | 45% for Black+15 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 8.Ba4 53.7% play itMistake | their better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4 |
| 11 | Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black | 23%within 11 moves · 19M games | 45% for Black+17 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 11 | 3.Bc4 18.4% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5 |
| 12 | Modern BenoniA60 · for Black | 23%within 10 moves · 96K games | 44% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4.dxe6 15.5% play itMistake | their better move: Nc3the answer: 4…fxe6 5.Nc3 d5 |
| 13 | Italian GameC50 · for White | 22%within 10 moves · 48M games | 51% for White+13 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 3…Nd4 5.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bc5the answer: 4.Nxd4 exd4 5.O-O |
| 14 | French DefenseC00 · for Black | 22%within 11 moves · 8.3M games | 49% for Black+11 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bb5 16.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3the answer: 5…Qa5 6.Bxc6+ bxc6 |
| 15 | Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White | 22%within 10 moves · 677K games | 51% for White+12 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 4…e5 12.6% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 5.Bc4 Nf6 6.Nf3 |
| 16 | Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White | 21%within 10 moves · 2.6M games | 51% for White+15 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nf6 21.8% play itMistake · wins a piece | their better move: Bg4the answer: 6.Nxe5 Bd6 7.Nf3 |
| 17 | Four Knights GameC47 · for White | 19%within 11 moves · 17M games | 48% for White+10 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxd4 49.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4 |
| 18 | Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White | 18%within 6 moves · 150K games | 48% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 2…e6 11.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4 |
| 19 | Modern DefenseB06 · for Black | 17%within 10 moves · 10M games | 47% for Black+14 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 3.e5 31.2% play itMistake | their better move: Nc3the answer: 3…d6 4.f4 dxe5 |
| 20 | Danish GambitC21 · for White | 15%within 10 moves · 2.5M games | 54% for White+11 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 5…f6 6.8% play itMistake | their better move: Bb4+the answer: 6.Nc3 Bb4 7.Ne2 |
| 21 | Benko GambitA57 · for Black | 14%within 10 moves · 43K games | 47% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4.Nc3 13.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6 |
| 22 | Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White | 13%within 10 moves · 203K games | 52% for Whitewell prepared: too few games57% win chance after move 11 | 5…Bf5 19.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: e6the answer: 6.Qb3 Qb6 7.cxd5 |
| 23 | Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black | 13%within 10 moves · 24M games | 49% for Black+7 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 2.Bc4 11.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.exd5 cxd5 |
| 24 | Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black | 10%within 10 moves · 311K games | 46% for Blackwell prepared: too few games43% win chance after move 11 | 4.Bf4 5.7% play itMistake | their better move: cxd5 |
| 25 | Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black | 10%within 9 moves · 685K games | 47% for Blackwell prepared: too few games47% win chance after move 11 | 5.O-O 5.4% play itMistake | their better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5 |
| 26 | Slav DefenseD15 · for Black | 9%within 10 moves · 4.2M games | 45% for Black+8 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 3.c5 5.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3 |
| 27 | Sicilian KanB41 · for Black | 9%within 10 moves · 142K games | 51% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 5.e5 3.4% play itMistake | their better move: c4 |
| 28 | Evans GambitC51 · for White | 9%within 10 moves · 681K games | 54% for White+15 pts well prepared59% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxb4 24% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: a6the answer: 6.a5 Bc5 7.c3 |
| 29 | English OpeningA10 · for White | 9%within 10 moves · 16M games | 51% for White+10 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 2…c6 5.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d4 |
| 30 | Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White | 8%within 10 moves · 30M games | 51% for White+13 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 3…Nf6 25.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.Nxe5 O-O 5.d4 |
| 31 | French WinawerC15 · for Black | 8%within 11 moves · 301K games | 46% for Blackwell prepared: too few games45% win chance after move 11 | 4.f3 2.9% play itMistake | their better move: e5 |
| 32 | Ruy LopezC60 · for White | 8%within 10 moves · 22M games | 51% for White+13 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 4…a6 15.5% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5 |
| 33 | Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black | 8%within 10 moves · 13M games | 46% for Black+10 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 3.e5 11.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 3…dxe5 4.dxe5 Qxd1+ |
| 34 | Marshall AttackC89 · for Black | 7%within 11 moves · 6.6K games | — | 10.cxd4 47.2% play itBlunder · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 10…dxe4 |
| 35 | London SystemD00 · for White | 7%within 10 moves · 157M games | 51% for White+8 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 1…e5 7.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 2.dxe5 Nc6 3.Nf3 |
| 36 | Réti OpeningA04 · for White | 7%within 11 moves · 319K games | 49% for White+9 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 3…e5 6.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: g6 |
| 37 | Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White | 7%within 10 moves · 4.8M games | 49% for White+9 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 4…c5 4.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e6 |
| 38 | Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black | 6%within 11 moves · 539K games | 50% for Black+7 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 6.Bf4 2.7% play itBlunder | their better move: Be2 |
| 39 | King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black | 6%within 11 moves · 1.1M games | 47% for Black+8 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 5.e5 5% play itMistake | their better move: Be2 |
| 40 | French TarraschC03 · for White | 4%within 11 moves · 114K games | 52% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4…cxd4 6.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5 |
| 41 | Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 261K games | 51% for White+3 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 4…Bb4 2.1% play itBlunder | their better move: exd5 |
| 42 | Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black | 3%within 10 moves · 529K games | 46% for Black+11 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 4.e4 2.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3 |
| 43 | Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 150K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 5.c5 3.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxd5 |
| 44 | Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 63K games | 35% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6.d3 3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d4 |
| 45 | Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 269K games | 49% for Black+8 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 6.Bf4 2.5% play itMistake | their better move: Be3 |
| 46 | Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black | 3%within 9 moves · 25M games | 45% for Black+9 pts well prepared41% win chance after move 11 | 4.d5 7% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 4…Nxe4 5.Bd3 Nf6 |
| 47 | Classical SicilianB56 · for Black | 2%within 10 moves · 236K games | 48% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6.Bd3 2.3% play itBlunder | their better move: Bg5 |
| 48 | Vienna GameC25 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 15M games | 51% for White+12 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 3…Bb4 5.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 4.Qh5 g6 5.Qf3 |
| 49 | Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black | 2%within 10 moves · 52M games | 49% for Black+11 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 3.d4 17.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5 |
| 50 | Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black | 2%within 11 moves · 498K games | 50% for Black+12 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 6.Nxc6 25.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nc3the answer: 6…dxc6 7.Qxd8+ Kxd8 |
| 51 | Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 2.0M games | 51% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 19.9% play itBlunder · wins material · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 6.Qxd5 cxb2 7.Bxb2 |
| 52 | Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 527K games | 48% for Black+10 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 6.Bd3 3.2% play itBlunder | their better move: Be3 |
| 53 | King's Indian AttackA05 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 11K games | — | 8…Bd7 8.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 9.e5 Nd5 10.Qe2 |
| 54 | Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 471K games | 47% for White+6 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11 | 6…O-O-O 5.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 7.d4 cxd4 8.cxd4 |
| 55 | Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White | 1%within 9 moves · 704K games | 49% for White+5 pts well prepared50% win chance after move 11 | 5…c5 7.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5 |
| 56 | Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 9.7M games | 41% for Black+15 pts well prepared37% win chance after move 11 | 4.Bg5 5.4% play itMistake | their better move: e3 |
| 57 | Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 1.4M games | 49% for White+12 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 5…Qb6 2.7% play itMistake | their better move: e5 |
| 58 | Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 40K games | — | 6.Bg5 2.1% play itMistake | their better move: d5 |
| 59 | Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black | <1%within 9 moves · 2.2M games | 46% for Black+11 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 4.c5 2.2% play itMistake | their better move: Nf3 |
| 60 | Colle SystemD05 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 1.9M games | 51% for White+6 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 6…c4 17.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4 |
| 61 | Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 5.1M games | 43% for Black+17 pts well prepared42% win chance after move 11 | 6.Re1 2.9% play itMistake | their better move: Bxc6 |
| 62 | French AdvanceC02 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 6.2M games | 47% for White+14 pts well prepared50% win chance after move 11 | 7…Nge7 17.4% play itMistake | their better move: Na5the answer: 8.Bxc4 dxc4 9.Nxc4 |
| 63 | Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 59K games | 51% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 9.f5 11.6% play itMistake | their better move: Be3the answer: 9…Qb6 10.Be3 e5 |
| 64 | Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 92K games | 49% for Black+10 pts well prepared50% win chance after move 11 | 11.f3 6.6% play itMistake | their better move: Bxb5the answer: 11…fxe4 12.fxe4 Qh4+ |
| 65 | Torre AttackA46 · for White | <1%within 9 moves · 3.1M games | 49% for White+8 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 4…g5 2.3% play itMistake | their better move: c5 |
| 66 | Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 2.5M games | 45% for Black+8 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 6.e4 2.1% play itMistake | their better move: e3 |
| 67 | Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 3.6K games | — | — | — |
| 68 | Closed SicilianB23 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 3.9M games | 47% for White+12 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 69 | Catalan OpeningE01 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 29K games | — | — | — |
| 70 | Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 77K games | 47% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | — | — |
Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.
Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.
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