Common opening mistakes at 1800–1999 Elo — and how to punish them
Lichess players rated 1800–1999 (the 1800s band; ≈1500–1750 on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.
51% of Lichess players rated 1800–1999 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 10 moves (1.4M games, a lower bound).
The three highest for players rated 1800–1999 are the Vienna Gambit (51%), the King's Gambit (47%) and the Budapest Gambit (36%). 8 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (1600–1799); the Sicilian Wing Gambit stands furthest above its place there, number 9 here against number 14.
70 openings, ranked for players rated 1800–1999
| # | Opening | Make a mistake | Win rate | Costliest slip | Punish it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vienna GambitC29 · for White | 51%within 10 moves · 1.4M games | 54% for White+8 pts well prepared59% win chance after move 11 | 3…exf4 30.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3 |
| 2 | King's GambitC30 · for White | 47%within 9 moves · 18M games | 50% for White+14 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 2…Nc6 19.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3 |
| 3 | Budapest GambitA52 · for Black | 36%within 11 moves · 2.9M games | 48% for Blackwell prepared: too few games46% win chance after move 11 | 3.d5 22.1% play itMistake | their better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5 |
| 4 | Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black | 26%within 11 moves · 2.9M games | 44% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bf4 9.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5 |
| 5 | Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black | 23%within 10 moves · 47M games | 47% for Black+6 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 2.e5 9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5the answer: 2…c5 3.d4 cxd4 |
| 6 | Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black | 23%within 11 moves · 12M games | 46% for Black+8 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 3.Bc4 17.6% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5 |
| 7 | Danish GambitC21 · for White | 20%within 10 moves · 4.0M games | 54% for White+8 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 3…d3 3.9% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Qe7the answer: 4.Bxd3 Nc6 5.Nf3 |
| 8 | King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White | 19%within 8 moves · 613K games | 54% for Whitewell prepared: too few games55% win chance after move 11 | 3…g5 11.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.h4 g4 5.Nc3 |
| 9 | Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White | 19%within 6 moves · 1.5M games | 49% for Whitewell prepared: too few games52% win chance after move 11 | 2…e6 12% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4 |
| 10 | Italian GameC50 · for White | 18%within 10 moves · 34M games | 50% for White+7 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 6…Ng4 19.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 7.cxd4 Bb4+ 8.Nc3 |
| 11 | Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White | 18%within 10 moves · 5.3M games | 50% for White+4 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 3…d3 9.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: dxc3the answer: 4.Bxd3 Nc6 5.c4 |
| 12 | Scotch GambitC44 · for White | 16%within 11 moves · 4.1M games | 52% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 44.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+ |
| 13 | Scotch GameC45 · for White | 15%within 10 moves · 8.4M games | 51% for White+5 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nf6 12.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Qf6the answer: 6.e5 Qe7 7.Be3 |
| 14 | Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black | 14%within 11 moves · 443K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 5.O-O 8.1% play itMistake | their better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5 |
| 15 | Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black | 13%within 10 moves · 9.7M games | 49% for Black+6 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 2.d3 5.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 2…c5 3.Nf3 Nc6 |
| 16 | Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White | 12%within 10 moves · 1.9M games | 51% for White+4 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 5…Bf5 11.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: e6the answer: 6.Qb3 Qb6 7.cxd5 |
| 17 | Modern DefenseB06 · for Black | 11%within 11 moves · 17M games | 46% for Black+7 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 2.f4 6.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.e5 c5 |
| 18 | Modern BenoniA60 · for Black | 10%within 10 moves · 686K games | 49% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 4.dxe6 10.1% play itMistake | their better move: Nc3the answer: 4…fxe6 5.Nc3 d5 |
| 19 | Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black | 9%within 10 moves · 11M games | 47% for Black+7 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 8.Ba4 23% play itMistake | their better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4 |
| 20 | Four Knights GameC47 · for White | 9%within 11 moves · 6.2M games | 50% for White+7 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxd4 22.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4 |
| 21 | Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White | 8%within 10 moves · 1.6M games | 49% for White+8 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nf6 4.3% play itMistake · wins a piece | their better move: Bg4the answer: 6.Nxe5 Bd6 7.Nf3 |
| 22 | Benko GambitA57 · for Black | 8%within 10 moves · 1.2M games | 52% for Black+2 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 4.Nc3 8.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6 |
| 23 | French DefenseC00 · for Black | 8%within 11 moves · 27M games | 47% for Black+5 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bb5 12.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3the answer: 5…Qa5 6.Bxc6+ bxc6 |
| 24 | Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black | 6%within 10 moves · 45M games | 47% for Black+5 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 2.Bc4 4.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.exd5 cxd5 |
| 25 | Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black | 5%within 10 moves · 619K games | 47% for Black+9 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 4.Bf4 4.4% play itMistake | their better move: cxd5 |
| 26 | Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black | 5%within 11 moves · 2.0M games | 48% for Black+3 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 4.e4 2.8% play itMistake | their better move: Nf3 |
| 27 | London SystemD00 · for White | 4%within 11 moves · 235M games | 50% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 1…e5 4.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 2.dxe5 Nc6 3.Nf3 |
| 28 | Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White | 4%within 10 moves · 16M games | 50% for White+8 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 3…Nf6 18.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.Nxe5 O-O 5.d4 |
| 29 | English OpeningA10 · for White | 4%within 10 moves · 35M games | 51% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 2…c6 5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d4 |
| 30 | French TarraschC03 · for White | 4%within 11 moves · 2.8M games | 51% for White+3 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 4…cxd4 6.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5 |
| 31 | French WinawerC15 · for Black | 4%within 11 moves · 1.5M games | 46% for Black+9 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 5.Be3 3.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: a3 |
| 32 | Slav DefenseD15 · for Black | 3%within 10 moves · 13M games | 44% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bf4 9.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5 |
| 33 | Ruy LopezC60 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 19M games | 51% for White+4 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 4…a6 8.4% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5 |
| 34 | King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 5.9M games | 46% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 6.e5 15.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Be2the answer: 6…dxe5 7.fxe5 Nfd7 |
| 35 | Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 1.8M games | 51% for White+5 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 6…Bf5 4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: h6the answer: 7.Bxf6 Bxf6 8.Qb3 |
| 36 | Evans GambitC51 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 1.4M games | 53% for White+13 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxb4 8.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: a6the answer: 6.a5 Bc5 7.c3 |
| 37 | Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black | 2%within 11 moves · 3.2M games | 47% for Black+8 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 8.Qd2 13% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb3the answer: 8…Ng4 9.Nxc6 dxc6 |
| 38 | Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black | 2%within 11 moves · 5.6M games | 48% for Black+3 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 7.Nf5 6.1% play itMistake | their better move: Nb3the answer: 7…d5 8.Bg5 d4 |
| 39 | Vienna GameC25 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 10M games | 51% for White+8 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 3…Bb4 3.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 4.Qh5 g6 5.Qf3 |
| 40 | Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black | 2%within 11 moves · 2.0M games | 49% for Black+4 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 11.Nxd5 44% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nxc6the answer: 11…Qxd5 12.Nxc6 Qxc6 |
| 41 | Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 17M games | 44% for Black+5 pts well prepared42% win chance after move 11 | 8.f4 15.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: a4the answer: 8…d5 9.exd5 cxd5 |
| 42 | Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 3.6M games | 47% for Black+9 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 8.f4 8.7% play itBlunder · wins the queen | their better move: Be3the answer: 8…Nxd4 9.Qxd4 Bc5 |
| 43 | Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 2.2M games | 49% for White+7 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 5…c5 10.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5 |
| 44 | Colle SystemD05 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 3.0M games | 49% for White+4 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 6…c4 11.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4 |
| 45 | Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 129M games | 47% for Black+7 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 3.d4 5.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5 |
| 46 | Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 8.2M games | 48% for White+8 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 4…Bf5 3.1% play itMistake | their better move: e6 |
| 47 | Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 7.8M games | 50% for White+5 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 7.5% play itBlunder · wins material · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 6.Qxd5 cxb2 7.Bxb2 |
| 48 | French AdvanceC02 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 8.8M games | 47% for White+8 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 9…Nb3 14.3% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Ne7the answer: 10.Nxb3 |
| 49 | Marshall AttackC89 · for Black | 1%within 11 moves · 251K games | 47% for Black+4 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 10.cxd4 9.9% play itBlunder · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 10…dxe4 |
| 50 | Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 3.7M games | 47% for Black+7 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 7.Bg5 24.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: g3the answer: 7…Nxc5 8.e3 Nce4 |
| 51 | King's Indian AttackA05 · for White | <1%within 11 moves · 94K games | 49% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 8…Bd7 9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 9.e5 Nd5 10.Qe2 |
| 52 | Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 609K games | 48% for Black+4 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 9.Be2 4.6% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: O-O-Othe answer: 9…b4 10.Na4 d5 |
| 53 | Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 1.4M games | 48% for White+3 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 10…exd4 51.6% play itMistake | their better move: Nd7the answer: 11.g4 Nxg4 12.Nxd4 |
| 54 | Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 7.1M games | 42% for Black+14 pts well prepared41% win chance after move 11 | 4.Bg5 2.7% play itMistake | their better move: e3 |
| 55 | Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 489K games | 46% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 7.e4 8.9% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Bd2the answer: 7…Nxc3 8.bxc3 Bxe4 |
| 56 | Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 5.7M games | 45% for Black+7 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 6.h3 8.2% play itMistake · wins material | their better move: e3the answer: 6…dxc4 7.e4 fxe4 |
| 57 | Réti OpeningA04 · for White | <1%within 11 moves · 818K games | 51% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 5…Qd7 4.5% play itMistake | their better move: e6the answer: 6.Ne5 Qc8 7.Nxg4 |
| 58 | Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 32K games | — | 10.Nd2 8.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b3the answer: 10…Na6 11.a3 Ng4 |
| 59 | Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 1.1M games | 49% for Black+5 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 11.f3 5.9% play itMistake | their better move: Bxb5the answer: 11…fxe4 12.fxe4 Qh4+ |
| 60 | Classical SicilianB56 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 1.6M games | 48% for Black+6 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 10.e5 9.6% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Bxf6the answer: 10…dxe5 11.Nxc6 Bxc6 |
| 61 | Closed SicilianB23 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 11M games | 49% for White+6 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 9…f5 51.6% play itMistake | their better move: Bxh6the answer: 10.h5 |
| 62 | Torre AttackA46 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 12M games | 49% for White+4 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 8…Bg4 10.3% play itMistake | their better move: Nc6the answer: 9.h3 Bxf3 10.Qxf3 |
| 63 | Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 21M games | 47% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 8.Bxa6 7% play itMistake | their better move: d5the answer: 8…cxd4 9.Nxd4 bxa6 |
| 64 | Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 3.8M games | 51% for White+5 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 7…exd5 11.8% play itMistake | their better move: Nxd5the answer: 8.d4 c4 9.b3 |
| 65 | Catalan OpeningE01 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 296K games | 52% for White+6 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 7…Qe7 4% play itMistake | their better move: Nd5the answer: 8.Ne5 Bxd2+ 9.Nxd2 |
| 66 | Sicilian KanB41 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 2.5M games | 51% for Black+9 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 67 | Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 3.0M games | 43% for Black+10 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 68 | Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 123K games | 46% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | — | — |
| 69 | Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 11M games | 44% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 70 | Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 486K games | 44% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.
Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.
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