Common opening mistakes at 1800–1999 Elo — and how to punish them

Lichess players rated 1800–1999 (the 1800s band; ≈1500–1750 on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.

51% of Lichess players rated 1800–1999 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 10 moves (1.4M games, a lower bound).

The three highest for players rated 1800–1999 are the Vienna Gambit (51%), the King's Gambit (47%) and the Budapest Gambit (36%). 8 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (1600–1799); the Sicilian Wing Gambit stands furthest above its place there, number 9 here against number 14.

70 openings, ranked for players rated 1800–1999

#OpeningMake a mistakeWin rateCostliest slipPunish it
1Vienna GambitC29 · for White51%within 10 moves · 1.4M games54% for White+8 pts well prepared59% win chance after move 113…exf4 30.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3
2King's GambitC30 · for White47%within 9 moves · 18M games50% for White+14 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 112…Nc6 19.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3
3Budapest GambitA52 · for Black36%within 11 moves · 2.9M games48% for Blackwell prepared: too few games46% win chance after move 113.d5 22.1% play itMistaketheir better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5
4Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black26%within 11 moves · 2.9M games44% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 115.Bf4 9.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5
5Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black23%within 10 moves · 47M games47% for Black+6 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 112.e5 9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exd5the answer: 2…c5 3.d4 cxd4
6Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black23%within 11 moves · 12M games46% for Black+8 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 113.Bc4 17.6% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5
7Danish GambitC21 · for White20%within 10 moves · 4.0M games54% for White+8 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 113…d3 3.9% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Qe7the answer: 4.Bxd3 Nc6 5.Nf3
8King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White19%within 8 moves · 613K games54% for Whitewell prepared: too few games55% win chance after move 113…g5 11.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.h4 g4 5.Nc3
9Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White19%within 6 moves · 1.5M games49% for Whitewell prepared: too few games52% win chance after move 112…e6 12% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4
10Italian GameC50 · for White18%within 10 moves · 34M games50% for White+7 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 116…Ng4 19.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: d5the answer: 7.cxd4 Bb4+ 8.Nc3
11Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White18%within 10 moves · 5.3M games50% for White+4 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 113…d3 9.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: dxc3the answer: 4.Bxd3 Nc6 5.c4
12Scotch GambitC44 · for White16%within 11 moves · 4.1M games52% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 115…dxc3 44.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+
13Scotch GameC45 · for White15%within 10 moves · 8.4M games51% for White+5 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 115…Nf6 12.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Qf6the answer: 6.e5 Qe7 7.Be3
14Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black14%within 11 moves · 443K games49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games5.O-O 8.1% play itMistaketheir better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5
15Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black13%within 10 moves · 9.7M games49% for Black+6 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 112.d3 5.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 2…c5 3.Nf3 Nc6
16Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White12%within 10 moves · 1.9M games51% for White+4 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 115…Bf5 11.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: e6the answer: 6.Qb3 Qb6 7.cxd5
17Modern DefenseB06 · for Black11%within 11 moves · 17M games46% for Black+7 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 112.f4 6.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.e5 c5
18Modern BenoniA60 · for Black10%within 10 moves · 686K games49% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 114.dxe6 10.1% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc3the answer: 4…fxe6 5.Nc3 d5
19Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black9%within 10 moves · 11M games47% for Black+7 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 118.Ba4 23% play itMistaketheir better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4
20Four Knights GameC47 · for White9%within 11 moves · 6.2M games50% for White+7 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 115…Nxd4 22.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4
21Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White8%within 10 moves · 1.6M games49% for White+8 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 115…Nf6 4.3% play itMistake · wins a piecetheir better move: Bg4the answer: 6.Nxe5 Bd6 7.Nf3
22Benko GambitA57 · for Black8%within 10 moves · 1.2M games52% for Black+2 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 114.Nc3 8.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6
23French DefenseC00 · for Black8%within 11 moves · 27M games47% for Black+5 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 115.Bb5 12.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nf3the answer: 5…Qa5 6.Bxc6+ bxc6
24Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black6%within 10 moves · 45M games47% for Black+5 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 112.Bc4 4.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.exd5 cxd5
25Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black5%within 10 moves · 619K games47% for Black+9 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 114.Bf4 4.4% play itMistaketheir better move: cxd5
26Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black5%within 11 moves · 2.0M games48% for Black+3 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 114.e4 2.8% play itMistaketheir better move: Nf3
27London SystemD00 · for White4%within 11 moves · 235M games50% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 111…e5 4.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 2.dxe5 Nc6 3.Nf3
28Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White4%within 10 moves · 16M games50% for White+8 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 113…Nf6 18.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.Nxe5 O-O 5.d4
29English OpeningA10 · for White4%within 10 moves · 35M games51% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 112…c6 5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d4
30French TarraschC03 · for White4%within 11 moves · 2.8M games51% for White+3 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 114…cxd4 6.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exd5
31French WinawerC15 · for Black4%within 11 moves · 1.5M games46% for Black+9 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 115.Be3 3.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: a3
32Slav DefenseD15 · for Black3%within 10 moves · 13M games44% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 115.Bf4 9.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5
33Ruy LopezC60 · for White3%within 10 moves · 19M games51% for White+4 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 114…a6 8.4% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5
34King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 5.9M games46% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 116.e5 15.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Be2the answer: 6…dxe5 7.fxe5 Nfd7
35Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White3%within 10 moves · 1.8M games51% for White+5 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 116…Bf5 4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: h6the answer: 7.Bxf6 Bxf6 8.Qb3
36Evans GambitC51 · for White2%within 10 moves · 1.4M games53% for White+13 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 115…Nxb4 8.9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: a6the answer: 6.a5 Bc5 7.c3
37Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black2%within 11 moves · 3.2M games47% for Black+8 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 118.Qd2 13% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb3the answer: 8…Ng4 9.Nxc6 dxc6
38Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black2%within 11 moves · 5.6M games48% for Black+3 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 117.Nf5 6.1% play itMistaketheir better move: Nb3the answer: 7…d5 8.Bg5 d4
39Vienna GameC25 · for White2%within 10 moves · 10M games51% for White+8 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 113…Bb4 3.9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 4.Qh5 g6 5.Qf3
40Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black2%within 11 moves · 2.0M games49% for Black+4 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 1111.Nxd5 44% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nxc6the answer: 11…Qxd5 12.Nxc6 Qxc6
41Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 17M games44% for Black+5 pts well prepared42% win chance after move 118.f4 15.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: a4the answer: 8…d5 9.exd5 cxd5
42Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 3.6M games47% for Black+9 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 118.f4 8.7% play itBlunder · wins the queentheir better move: Be3the answer: 8…Nxd4 9.Qxd4 Bc5
43Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White1%within 10 moves · 2.2M games49% for White+7 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 115…c5 10.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5
44Colle SystemD05 · for White1%within 10 moves · 3.0M games49% for White+4 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 116…c4 11.5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4
45Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 129M games47% for Black+7 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 113.d4 5.5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5
46Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White1%within 10 moves · 8.2M games48% for White+8 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 114…Bf5 3.1% play itMistaketheir better move: e6
47Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White1%within 10 moves · 7.8M games50% for White+5 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 115…dxc3 7.5% play itBlunder · wins material · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 6.Qxd5 cxb2 7.Bxb2
48French AdvanceC02 · for White1%within 10 moves · 8.8M games47% for White+8 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 119…Nb3 14.3% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Ne7the answer: 10.Nxb3
49Marshall AttackC89 · for Black1%within 11 moves · 251K games47% for Black+4 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 1110.cxd4 9.9% play itBlunder · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 10…dxe4
50Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 3.7M games47% for Black+7 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 117.Bg5 24.3% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: g3the answer: 7…Nxc5 8.e3 Nce4
51King's Indian AttackA05 · for White<1%within 11 moves · 94K games49% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games8…Bd7 9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 9.e5 Nd5 10.Qe2
52Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 609K games48% for Black+4 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 119.Be2 4.6% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: O-O-Othe answer: 9…b4 10.Na4 d5
53Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 1.4M games48% for White+3 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 1110…exd4 51.6% play itMistaketheir better move: Nd7the answer: 11.g4 Nxg4 12.Nxd4
54Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 7.1M games42% for Black+14 pts well prepared41% win chance after move 114.Bg5 2.7% play itMistaketheir better move: e3
55Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 489K games46% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 117.e4 8.9% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Bd2the answer: 7…Nxc3 8.bxc3 Bxe4
56Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 5.7M games45% for Black+7 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 116.h3 8.2% play itMistake · wins materialtheir better move: e3the answer: 6…dxc4 7.e4 fxe4
57Réti OpeningA04 · for White<1%within 11 moves · 818K games51% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 115…Qd7 4.5% play itMistaketheir better move: e6the answer: 6.Ne5 Qc8 7.Nxg4
58Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 32K games—10.Nd2 8.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: b3the answer: 10…Na6 11.a3 Ng4
59Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 1.1M games49% for Black+5 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 1111.f3 5.9% play itMistaketheir better move: Bxb5the answer: 11…fxe4 12.fxe4 Qh4+
60Classical SicilianB56 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 1.6M games48% for Black+6 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 1110.e5 9.6% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Bxf6the answer: 10…dxe5 11.Nxc6 Bxc6
61Closed SicilianB23 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 11M games49% for White+6 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 119…f5 51.6% play itMistaketheir better move: Bxh6the answer: 10.h5
62Torre AttackA46 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 12M games49% for White+4 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 118…Bg4 10.3% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc6the answer: 9.h3 Bxf3 10.Qxf3
63Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 21M games47% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 118.Bxa6 7% play itMistaketheir better move: d5the answer: 8…cxd4 9.Nxd4 bxa6
64Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 3.8M games51% for White+5 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 117…exd5 11.8% play itMistaketheir better move: Nxd5the answer: 8.d4 c4 9.b3
65Catalan OpeningE01 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 296K games52% for White+6 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 117…Qe7 4% play itMistaketheir better move: Nd5the answer: 8.Ne5 Bxd2+ 9.Nxd2
66Sicilian KanB41 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 2.5M games51% for Black+9 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11——
67Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 3.0M games43% for Black+10 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11——
68Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 123K games46% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games——
69Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 11M games44% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11——
70Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 486K games44% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11——

Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.

Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.

Frequently asked questions

51% of Lichess players rated 1800–1999 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 10 moves (1.4M games, a lower bound). That is the top of this page’s ranking; the table lists every opening we teach in the same order, with the slip that costs the most and the answer to it.

Your games already show which of these openings you actually reach — the trainer ranks this list for your own rating and drills the lines behind it.

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