Common opening mistakes at 2000–2199 Elo — and how to punish them
Lichess players rated 2000–2199 (the 2000s band; ≈1750–2000 on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.
40% of Lichess players rated 2000–2199 who reach the King's Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 9 moves (6.1M games, a lower bound).
The three highest for players rated 2000–2199 are the King's Gambit (40%), the Vienna Gambit (34%) and the Budapest Gambit (26%). 9 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (1800–1999); the Smith-Morra Gambit stands furthest above its place there, number 5 here against number 11.
70 openings, ranked for players rated 2000–2199
| # | Opening | Make a mistake | Win rate | Costliest slip | Punish it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King's GambitC30 · for White | 40%within 9 moves · 6.1M games | 48% for White+14 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11 | 2…Nc6 16.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3 |
| 2 | Vienna GambitC29 · for White | 34%within 10 moves · 734K games | 52% for White+6 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 3…exf4 17.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3 |
| 3 | Budapest GambitA52 · for Black | 26%within 11 moves · 2.0M games | 45% for Blackwell prepared: too few games45% win chance after move 11 | 3.d5 15.3% play itMistake | their better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5 |
| 4 | Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black | 25%within 10 moves · 21M games | 46% for Black+5 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 2.e5 6.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5the answer: 2…c5 3.d4 cxd4 |
| 5 | Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White | 21%within 10 moves · 4.0M games | 49% for White+3 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 3…d3 14.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: dxc3the answer: 4.Bxd3 Nc6 5.c4 |
| 6 | Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black | 20%within 11 moves · 2.7M games | 43% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bf4 8.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5 |
| 7 | Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black | 19%within 11 moves · 5.2M games | 46% for Black+6 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 3.Bc4 13.3% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5 |
| 8 | Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White | 17%within 6 moves · 1.2M games | 49% for Whitewell prepared: too few games50% win chance after move 11 | 2…e6 10.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4 |
| 9 | Danish GambitC21 · for White | 17%within 10 moves · 1.6M games | 51% for White+4 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 3…d3 6.8% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Qe7the answer: 4.Bxd3 Nc6 5.Nf3 |
| 10 | King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White | 16%within 8 moves · 320K games | 53% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 3…g5 13.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.h4 g4 5.Nc3 |
| 11 | Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black | 15%within 11 moves · 199K games | 47% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 5.O-O 8.2% play itMistake | their better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5 |
| 12 | Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black | 11%within 10 moves · 7.4M games | 48% for Black+5 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 2.d3 5.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 2…c5 3.Nf3 Nc6 |
| 13 | Italian GameC50 · for White | 10%within 10 moves · 13M games | 48% for White+6 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 6…Ne4 10.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: d5the answer: 7.Bd5 Nxf2 8.Kxf2 |
| 14 | Scotch GambitC44 · for White | 10%within 11 moves · 2.1M games | 50% for White+5 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 26.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+ |
| 15 | Scotch GameC45 · for White | 10%within 10 moves · 3.2M games | 50% for White+4 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 10…Bg7 83% play itMistake | their better move: g5the answer: 11.Qf2 Nb6 12.Ba3 |
| 16 | Four Knights GameC47 · for White | 8%within 11 moves · 2.5M games | 51% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxd4 10.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4 |
| 17 | Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White | 7%within 10 moves · 1.6M games | 50% for White+5 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 5…Bf5 4.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: e6the answer: 6.Qb3 Qb6 7.cxd5 |
| 18 | Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White | 6%within 10 moves · 891K games | 50% for White+6 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 7…Bc5 15.4% play itBlunder · wins a piece | their better move: c5the answer: 8.Qh5+ g6 9.Qxc5 |
| 19 | Benko GambitA57 · for Black | 6%within 10 moves · 1.5M games | 51% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 4.Nc3 5.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6 |
| 20 | Modern BenoniA60 · for Black | 6%within 10 moves · 704K games | 48% for Black+3 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 4.dxe6 5.6% play itMistake | their better move: Nc3the answer: 4…fxe6 5.Nc3 d5 |
| 21 | Modern DefenseB06 · for Black | 5%within 11 moves · 8.0M games | 46% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 2.f4 4.8% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.e5 c5 |
| 22 | Vienna GameC25 · for White | 5%within 10 moves · 4.2M games | 51% for White+7 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 2…f5 2.4% play itMistake | their better move: Nc6 |
| 23 | Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black | 5%within 11 moves · 1.9M games | 46% for Black+3 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 4.e4 2.7% play itMistake | their better move: Nf3 |
| 24 | Slav DefenseD15 · for Black | 4%within 10 moves · 8.5M games | 43% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bf4 8.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5 |
| 25 | French DefenseC00 · for Black | 4%within 11 moves · 18M games | 46% for Black+4 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bb5 6.1% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3the answer: 5…Qa5 6.Bxc6+ bxc6 |
| 26 | Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black | 4%within 10 moves · 391K games | 48% for Black+7 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 4.Bf4 2.4% play itMistake | their better move: cxd5 |
| 27 | French TarraschC03 · for White | 3%within 11 moves · 3.0M games | 49% for White+3 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 7…a6 3.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxd4the answer: 8.O-O b5 9.Nf3 |
| 28 | Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 4.1M games | 49% for White+6 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 3…Nf6 17.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.Nxe5 O-O 5.d4 |
| 29 | Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 1.5M games | 52% for White+3 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 7…b6 7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: h6the answer: 8.Bxf6 Bxf6 9.Qh5 |
| 30 | Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 2.1M games | 46% for Black+7 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 6.Be3 8.1% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 6…Nxe4 7.Bd3 Qa5+ |
| 31 | Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black | 3%within 10 moves · 5.2M games | 47% for Black+4 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 8.Ba4 10.5% play itMistake | their better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4 |
| 32 | Ruy LopezC60 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 9.8M games | 50% for White+3 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 4…a6 6.3% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5 |
| 33 | King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black | 2%within 11 moves · 4.5M games | 46% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 6.e5 10.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Be2the answer: 6…dxe5 7.fxe5 Nfd7 |
| 34 | Evans GambitC51 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 729K games | 50% for White+9 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 8…Nf6 20.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb6the answer: 9.dxe5 dxe5 10.Rd1 |
| 35 | Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black | 2%within 11 moves · 1.8M games | 48% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 11.Nxd5 31.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nxc6the answer: 11…Qxd5 12.Nxc6 Qxc6 |
| 36 | English OpeningA10 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 23M games | 50% for White+4 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 4…Bc5 9.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 5.Nxe5 Nxe5 6.d4 |
| 37 | Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black | 2%within 10 moves · 27M games | 46% for Black+4 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 4.f3 6.1% play itMistake | their better move: Nxe4 |
| 38 | Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 4.8M games | 43% for Black+6 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 11 | 6.Bxf7+ 9.7% play itMistake | their better move: a4the answer: 6…Kxf7 7.Ng5+ Kg8 |
| 39 | Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 2.1M games | 50% for White+5 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 5…c5 12.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5 |
| 40 | Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black | 1%within 11 moves · 5.0M games | 46% for Black+3 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 7.Nf5 3.3% play itMistake | their better move: Nb3the answer: 7…d5 8.Bg5 d4 |
| 41 | French AdvanceC02 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 4.6M games | 48% for White+6 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 9…Nb3 13% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Ne7the answer: 10.Nxb3 |
| 42 | Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 2.1M games | 46% for Black+5 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 8.f4 5.2% play itBlunder · wins the queen | their better move: Be3the answer: 8…Nxd4 9.Qxd4 Bc5 |
| 43 | Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 3.5M games | 44% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 3.e4 2.3% play itMistake | their better move: g3 |
| 44 | French WinawerC15 · for Black | 1%within 11 moves · 1.6M games | 46% for Black+7 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 12.cxd4 5.6% play itMistake · wins a rook | their better move: Qd3the answer: 12…Nxd4 13.Qd3 Nxc2+ |
| 45 | Colle SystemD05 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 1.6M games | 49% for White+4 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 6…c4 7.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4 |
| 46 | Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 52K games | 45% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 10.Nd2 8.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b3the answer: 10…Na6 11.a3 Ng4 |
| 47 | Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 4.8M games | 49% for White+3 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 2.4% play itBlunder · wins material · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 6.Qxd5 cxb2 7.Bxb2 |
| 48 | Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 77M games | 46% for Black+5 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 3.d4 2.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5 |
| 49 | Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 455K games | 47% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 9.Be2 2.9% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: O-O-Othe answer: 9…b4 10.Na4 d5 |
| 50 | Closed SicilianB23 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 8.6M games | 50% for White+4 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 9…f5 45.4% play itMistake | their better move: Bxh6the answer: 10.h5 |
| 51 | Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 3.1M games | 47% for Black+7 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 7.Bg5 20.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: g3the answer: 7…Nxc5 8.e3 Nce4 |
| 52 | Classical SicilianB56 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 1.2M games | 47% for Black+6 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 10.e5 7% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Bxf6the answer: 10…dxe5 11.Nxc6 Bxc6 |
| 53 | Marshall AttackC89 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 242K games | 46% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 10.cxd4 3.7% play itBlunder · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 10…dxe4 |
| 54 | Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 13M games | 46% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 8.Bxa6 7.3% play itMistake | their better move: d5the answer: 8…cxd4 9.Nxd4 bxa6 |
| 55 | Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 708K games | 44% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 7.e4 5.9% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Bd2the answer: 7…Nxc3 8.bxc3 Bxe4 |
| 56 | Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 1.3M games | 50% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 10…exd4 44.6% play itMistake | their better move: Nd7the answer: 11.g4 Nxg4 12.Nxd4 |
| 57 | King's Indian AttackA05 · for White | <1%within 11 moves · 124K games | 52% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 8…dxe4 27.2% play itMistake | their better move: Nc6the answer: 9.dxe4 O-O 10.e5 |
| 58 | Réti OpeningA04 · for White | <1%within 11 moves · 974K games | 51% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 5…Qd7 3% play itMistake | their better move: e6the answer: 6.Ne5 Qc8 7.Nxg4 |
| 59 | Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 2.7M games | 52% for White+5 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 7…exd5 5.8% play itMistake | their better move: Nxd5the answer: 8.d4 c4 9.b3 |
| 60 | Torre AttackA46 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 12M games | 49% for White+4 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 8…Bg4 6.4% play itMistake | their better move: Nc6the answer: 9.h3 Bxf3 10.Qxf3 |
| 61 | Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 2.4M games | 44% for Black+10 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 9.exd4 13.1% play itMistake | their better move: Rd1the answer: 9…Nxd4 10.Nxd4 Qxd4 |
| 62 | Catalan OpeningE01 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 436K games | 52% for White+3 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 9…O-O 25.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Rb8the answer: 10.a3 Nd5 11.Qxc4 |
| 63 | London SystemD00 · for White | <1%within 11 moves · 137M games | 50% for White+4 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 9…Qxc5 15.3% play itMistake | their better move: Be7the answer: 10.c4 Be7 11.Nb3 |
| 64 | Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 4.8M games | 49% for White+8 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 65 | Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 1.2M games | 47% for Black+3 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 66 | Sicilian KanB41 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 2.2M games | 50% for Black+7 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 67 | Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 1.7M games | 44% for Black+6 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 68 | Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 139K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | — | — |
| 69 | Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 6.7M games | 44% for Black+4 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 70 | Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 598K games | 44% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.
Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.
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