Common opening mistakes at 2200+ Elo — and how to punish them

Lichess players rated 2200 and up (the 2200+ band; ≈2000+ on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.

29% of Lichess players rated 2200 and up who reach the King's Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 9 moves (1.1M games, a lower bound).

The three highest for players rated 2200 and up are the King's Gambit (29%), the Smith-Morra Gambit (21%) and the Scandinavian Defense (18%). 9 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (2000–2199); the Danish Gambit stands furthest above its place there, number 5 here against number 9.

70 openings, ranked for players rated 2200 and up

#OpeningMake a mistakeWin rateCostliest slipPunish it
1King's GambitC30 · for White29%within 9 moves · 1.1M games46% for White+9 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 112…Nc6 14.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3
2Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White21%within 10 moves · 1.4M games47% for White+2 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 113…d3 16.8% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: dxc3the answer: 4.Bxd3 Nc6 5.c4
3Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black18%within 10 moves · 5.4M games46% for Black+3 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 112.Nc3 6% play itMistaketheir better move: exd5the answer: 2…d4 3.Nce2 e5
4Vienna GambitC29 · for White16%within 10 moves · 268K games50% for White+3 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 113…exf4 6.9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3
5Danish GambitC21 · for White14%within 10 moves · 282K games48% for White+4 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 113…d3 10.5% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Qe7the answer: 4.Bxd3 Nc6 5.Nf3
6King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White14%within 8 moves · 99K games47% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games3…g5 10% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.h4 g4 5.Nc3
7Budapest GambitA52 · for Black13%within 11 moves · 647K games44% for Blackwell prepared: too few games45% win chance after move 113.d5 6.5% play itMistaketheir better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5
8Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black12%within 11 moves · 51K games—5.O-O 6.1% play itMistaketheir better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5
9Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black12%within 11 moves · 1.4M games42% for Black+4 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 115.Bf4 5.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5
10Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black12%within 11 moves · 1.6M games44% for Black+2 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 113.Bc4 6.7% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5
11Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White12%within 6 moves · 438K games48% for Whitewell prepared: too few games52% win chance after move 112…e6 6.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4
12Scotch GameC45 · for White11%within 10 moves · 1.0M games49% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 1110…Bg7 73.5% play itMistaketheir better move: g5the answer: 11.Qf2 Nb6 12.Ba3
13Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black7%within 10 moves · 3.1M games45% for Black+4 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 112.d3 5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 2…c5 3.Nf3 Nc6
14Scotch GambitC44 · for White4%within 11 moves · 660K games48% for White+4 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 115…dxc3 10.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+
15Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 932K games45% for Black+2 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 116.Be3 6.3% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Nc3the answer: 6…Nxe4 7.Bd3 Qa5+
16Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White3%within 10 moves · 721K games48% for White+4 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 115…dxe4 11.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: a5the answer: 6.Ng5 Be6 7.Bxe6
17Benko GambitA57 · for Black3%within 10 moves · 992K games45% for Black+1 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 114.Nc3 2.5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6
18Four Knights GameC47 · for White2%within 11 moves · 956K games50% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 115…Nxd4 2.7% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4
19Italian GameC50 · for White2%within 10 moves · 3.5M games48% for White+4 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 116…Ne4 5.3% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: d5the answer: 7.Bd5 Nxf2 8.Kxf2
20Slav DefenseD15 · for Black2%within 10 moves · 3.7M games42% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 115.Bf4 5.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5
21French TarraschC03 · for White2%within 11 moves · 1.8M games49% for White+1 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 114…Nf6 21.5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: c5the answer: 5.e5 Nfd7 6.Qg4
22Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White2%within 10 moves · 437K games49% for White+3 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 117…Bc5 5.9% play itBlunder · wins a piecetheir better move: c5the answer: 8.Qh5+ g6 9.Qxc5
23Evans GambitC51 · for White2%within 10 moves · 203K games48% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games8…Nf6 12.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb6the answer: 9.dxe5 dxe5 10.Rd1
24Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black2%within 10 moves · 785K games44% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 116.Bxf7+ 6.1% play itMistaketheir better move: a4the answer: 6…Kxf7 7.Ng5+ Kg8
25French DefenseC00 · for Black2%within 11 moves · 8.0M games44% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 114.Qg4 4.6% play itMistaketheir better move: c3
26Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White2%within 10 moves · 795K games49% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 116…dxc4 7.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bg7the answer: 7.Bxc4 e6 8.d5
27Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 11M games43% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 114.f3 4.3% play itMistaketheir better move: Nxe4
28Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White1%within 10 moves · 985K games51% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 117…b6 5.1% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: h6the answer: 8.Bxf6 Bxf6 9.Qh5
29Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White1%within 10 moves · 1.7M games50% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 115…c5 8.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5
30French AdvanceC02 · for White1%within 10 moves · 1.7M games48% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 119…Nb3 9.6% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Ne7the answer: 10.Nxb3
31Ruy LopezC60 · for White1%within 10 moves · 4.2M games48% for White+2 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 114…a6 3.6% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5
32Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black1%within 11 moves · 1.1M games46% for Black+2 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 1111.Nxd5 8.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nxc6the answer: 11…Qxd5 12.Nxc6 Qxc6
33Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 1.5M games43% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 113.e4 2.2% play itMistaketheir better move: g3
34Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 64K games43% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games10.Nd2 7.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: b3the answer: 10…Na6 11.a3 Ng4
35Vienna GameC25 · for White1%within 10 moves · 1.4M games50% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 113…f5 2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6
36Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 1.7M games46% for Black+2 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 118.Ba4 3.3% play itMistaketheir better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4
37Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 864K games45% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 119.Bf3 7.4% play itMistaketheir better move: Na4the answer: 9…Ne5 10.Bf4 O-O
38King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black1%within 11 moves · 2.5M games44% for Black±0 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 116.e5 4.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Be2the answer: 6…dxe5 7.fxe5 Nfd7
39English OpeningA10 · for White1%within 10 moves · 11M games49% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 114…Bc5 4.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 5.Nxe5 Nxe5 6.d4
40Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black1%within 11 moves · 1.2M games43% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 118.a4 5.6% play itMistaketheir better move: e5the answer: 8…b5 9.Qb3 c5
41Classical SicilianB56 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 856K games47% for Black+2 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 1110.e5 4.6% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Bxf6the answer: 10…dxe5 11.Nxc6 Bxc6
42Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black1%within 11 moves · 4.8M games44% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 119.Qe1 10.2% play itMistaketheir better move: h3the answer: 9…Bxf3 10.Rxf3 Nb4
43French WinawerC15 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 1.2M games44% for Black+2 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 1112.cxd4 3.7% play itMistake · wins a rooktheir better move: Qd3the answer: 12…Nxd4 13.Qd3 Nxc2+
44Closed SicilianB23 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 4.4M games49% for White+2 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 119…f5 32.3% play itMistaketheir better move: Bxh6the answer: 10.h5
45Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 2.1M games44% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 117.Bg5 12.3% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: g3the answer: 7…Nxc5 8.e3 Nce4
46Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 731K games44% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 117.e4 4.6% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Bd2the answer: 7…Nxc3 8.bxc3 Bxe4
47Modern DefenseB06 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 3.1M games46% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 119.Qe1 10.2% play itMistaketheir better move: h3the answer: 9…Bxf3 10.Rxf3 Nb4
48Colle SystemD05 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 613K games47% for White+3 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 116…c4 3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4
49Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 251K games46% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 1110.Nf5 17.9% play itMistaketheir better move: Nb3the answer: 10…Bxf5 11.exf5 exf4
50Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 3.0M games44% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 117.Nf5 2.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nb3the answer: 7…d5 8.Bg5 d4
51Catalan OpeningE01 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 586K games49% for White+2 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 119…O-O 16.1% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Rb8the answer: 10.a3 Nd5 11.Qxc4
52King's Indian AttackA05 · for White<1%within 11 moves · 147K games51% for Whitewell prepared: too few games52% win chance after move 118…dxe4 13.1% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc6the answer: 9.dxe4 O-O 10.e5
53Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 886K games44% for Black+2 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 119.exd4 7.7% play itMistaketheir better move: Rd1the answer: 9…Nxd4 10.Nxd4 Qxd4
54Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 1.1M games50% for White±0 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 1110…exd4 42.5% play itMistaketheir better move: Nd7the answer: 11.g4 Nxg4 12.Nxd4
55Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 33M games44% for Black+3 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 118.Bf1 7.7% play itMistaketheir better move: Bxc6the answer: 8…O-O 9.d3 Ne6
56Torre AttackA46 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 8.1M games48% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 118…Bg4 2.2% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc6the answer: 9.h3 Bxf3 10.Qxf3
57London SystemD00 · for White<1%within 11 moves · 61M games49% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 119…Qxc5 10% play itMistaketheir better move: Be7the answer: 10.c4 Be7 11.Nb3
58Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 2.2M games49% for White+2 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 118…Bd6 2% play itBlunder · wins the queentheir better move: Qd7the answer: 9.Bc4 Bb8 10.Bxd5
59Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 2.3M games49% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 1110…Ng6 3.6% play itMistaketheir better move: O-Othe answer: 11.Ne1 Ne7 12.f4
60Réti OpeningA04 · for White<1%within 11 moves · 951K games50% for White+3 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11——
61Modern BenoniA60 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 476K games45% for Black+1 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 11——
62Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 1.7M games51% for White+2 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11——
63Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 735K games44% for Black±0 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11——
64Sicilian KanB41 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 1.2M games45% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11——
65Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 745K games43% for Black+3 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11——
66Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 109K games46% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games——
67Marshall AttackC89 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 101K games44% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11——
68Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 2.5M games42% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11——
69Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 268K games46% for Black+4 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11——
70Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 606K games43% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11——

Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.

Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.

Frequently asked questions

29% of Lichess players rated 2200 and up who reach the King's Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 9 moves (1.1M games, a lower bound). That is the top of this page’s ranking; the table lists every opening we teach in the same order, with the slip that costs the most and the answer to it.

Your games already show which of these openings you actually reach — the trainer ranks this list for your own rating and drills the lines behind it.

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