Common opening mistakes at 2200+ Elo — and how to punish them
Lichess players rated 2200 and up (the 2200+ band; ≈2000+ on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.
29% of Lichess players rated 2200 and up who reach the King's Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 9 moves (1.1M games, a lower bound).
The three highest for players rated 2200 and up are the King's Gambit (29%), the Smith-Morra Gambit (21%) and the Scandinavian Defense (18%). 9 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (2000–2199); the Danish Gambit stands furthest above its place there, number 5 here against number 9.
70 openings, ranked for players rated 2200 and up
| # | Opening | Make a mistake | Win rate | Costliest slip | Punish it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King's GambitC30 · for White | 29%within 9 moves · 1.1M games | 46% for White+9 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11 | 2…Nc6 14.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3 |
| 2 | Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White | 21%within 10 moves · 1.4M games | 47% for White+2 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 3…d3 16.8% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: dxc3the answer: 4.Bxd3 Nc6 5.c4 |
| 3 | Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black | 18%within 10 moves · 5.4M games | 46% for Black+3 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 2.Nc3 6% play itMistake | their better move: exd5the answer: 2…d4 3.Nce2 e5 |
| 4 | Vienna GambitC29 · for White | 16%within 10 moves · 268K games | 50% for White+3 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 3…exf4 6.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3 |
| 5 | Danish GambitC21 · for White | 14%within 10 moves · 282K games | 48% for White+4 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11 | 3…d3 10.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Qe7the answer: 4.Bxd3 Nc6 5.Nf3 |
| 6 | King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White | 14%within 8 moves · 99K games | 47% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 3…g5 10% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.h4 g4 5.Nc3 |
| 7 | Budapest GambitA52 · for Black | 13%within 11 moves · 647K games | 44% for Blackwell prepared: too few games45% win chance after move 11 | 3.d5 6.5% play itMistake | their better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5 |
| 8 | Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black | 12%within 11 moves · 51K games | — | 5.O-O 6.1% play itMistake | their better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5 |
| 9 | Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black | 12%within 11 moves · 1.4M games | 42% for Black+4 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bf4 5.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5 |
| 10 | Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black | 12%within 11 moves · 1.6M games | 44% for Black+2 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 3.Bc4 6.7% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5 |
| 11 | Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White | 12%within 6 moves · 438K games | 48% for Whitewell prepared: too few games52% win chance after move 11 | 2…e6 6.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4 |
| 12 | Scotch GameC45 · for White | 11%within 10 moves · 1.0M games | 49% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 10…Bg7 73.5% play itMistake | their better move: g5the answer: 11.Qf2 Nb6 12.Ba3 |
| 13 | Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black | 7%within 10 moves · 3.1M games | 45% for Black+4 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 2.d3 5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 2…c5 3.Nf3 Nc6 |
| 14 | Scotch GambitC44 · for White | 4%within 11 moves · 660K games | 48% for White+4 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 10.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+ |
| 15 | Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 932K games | 45% for Black+2 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 6.Be3 6.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 6…Nxe4 7.Bd3 Qa5+ |
| 16 | Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 721K games | 48% for White+4 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxe4 11.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: a5the answer: 6.Ng5 Be6 7.Bxe6 |
| 17 | Benko GambitA57 · for Black | 3%within 10 moves · 992K games | 45% for Black+1 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 4.Nc3 2.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6 |
| 18 | Four Knights GameC47 · for White | 2%within 11 moves · 956K games | 50% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxd4 2.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4 |
| 19 | Italian GameC50 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 3.5M games | 48% for White+4 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 6…Ne4 5.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: d5the answer: 7.Bd5 Nxf2 8.Kxf2 |
| 20 | Slav DefenseD15 · for Black | 2%within 10 moves · 3.7M games | 42% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bf4 5.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5 |
| 21 | French TarraschC03 · for White | 2%within 11 moves · 1.8M games | 49% for White+1 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 4…Nf6 21.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: c5the answer: 5.e5 Nfd7 6.Qg4 |
| 22 | Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 437K games | 49% for White+3 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 7…Bc5 5.9% play itBlunder · wins a piece | their better move: c5the answer: 8.Qh5+ g6 9.Qxc5 |
| 23 | Evans GambitC51 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 203K games | 48% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 8…Nf6 12.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb6the answer: 9.dxe5 dxe5 10.Rd1 |
| 24 | Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black | 2%within 10 moves · 785K games | 44% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 6.Bxf7+ 6.1% play itMistake | their better move: a4the answer: 6…Kxf7 7.Ng5+ Kg8 |
| 25 | French DefenseC00 · for Black | 2%within 11 moves · 8.0M games | 44% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 4.Qg4 4.6% play itMistake | their better move: c3 |
| 26 | Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 795K games | 49% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 6…dxc4 7.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bg7the answer: 7.Bxc4 e6 8.d5 |
| 27 | Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 11M games | 43% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 4.f3 4.3% play itMistake | their better move: Nxe4 |
| 28 | Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 985K games | 51% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 7…b6 5.1% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: h6the answer: 8.Bxf6 Bxf6 9.Qh5 |
| 29 | Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 1.7M games | 50% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 5…c5 8.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5 |
| 30 | French AdvanceC02 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 1.7M games | 48% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 9…Nb3 9.6% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Ne7the answer: 10.Nxb3 |
| 31 | Ruy LopezC60 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 4.2M games | 48% for White+2 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 4…a6 3.6% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5 |
| 32 | Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black | 1%within 11 moves · 1.1M games | 46% for Black+2 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 11.Nxd5 8.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nxc6the answer: 11…Qxd5 12.Nxc6 Qxc6 |
| 33 | Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 1.5M games | 43% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 3.e4 2.2% play itMistake | their better move: g3 |
| 34 | Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 64K games | 43% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 10.Nd2 7.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b3the answer: 10…Na6 11.a3 Ng4 |
| 35 | Vienna GameC25 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 1.4M games | 50% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 3…f5 2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6 |
| 36 | Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 1.7M games | 46% for Black+2 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 8.Ba4 3.3% play itMistake | their better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4 |
| 37 | Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 864K games | 45% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 9.Bf3 7.4% play itMistake | their better move: Na4the answer: 9…Ne5 10.Bf4 O-O |
| 38 | King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black | 1%within 11 moves · 2.5M games | 44% for Black±0 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 6.e5 4.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Be2the answer: 6…dxe5 7.fxe5 Nfd7 |
| 39 | English OpeningA10 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 11M games | 49% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 4…Bc5 4.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 5.Nxe5 Nxe5 6.d4 |
| 40 | Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black | 1%within 11 moves · 1.2M games | 43% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 8.a4 5.6% play itMistake | their better move: e5the answer: 8…b5 9.Qb3 c5 |
| 41 | Classical SicilianB56 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 856K games | 47% for Black+2 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 10.e5 4.6% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Bxf6the answer: 10…dxe5 11.Nxc6 Bxc6 |
| 42 | Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black | 1%within 11 moves · 4.8M games | 44% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 9.Qe1 10.2% play itMistake | their better move: h3the answer: 9…Bxf3 10.Rxf3 Nb4 |
| 43 | French WinawerC15 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 1.2M games | 44% for Black+2 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 12.cxd4 3.7% play itMistake · wins a rook | their better move: Qd3the answer: 12…Nxd4 13.Qd3 Nxc2+ |
| 44 | Closed SicilianB23 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 4.4M games | 49% for White+2 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 9…f5 32.3% play itMistake | their better move: Bxh6the answer: 10.h5 |
| 45 | Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 2.1M games | 44% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 7.Bg5 12.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: g3the answer: 7…Nxc5 8.e3 Nce4 |
| 46 | Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 731K games | 44% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 7.e4 4.6% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Bd2the answer: 7…Nxc3 8.bxc3 Bxe4 |
| 47 | Modern DefenseB06 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 3.1M games | 46% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 9.Qe1 10.2% play itMistake | their better move: h3the answer: 9…Bxf3 10.Rxf3 Nb4 |
| 48 | Colle SystemD05 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 613K games | 47% for White+3 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 6…c4 3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4 |
| 49 | Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 251K games | 46% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 10.Nf5 17.9% play itMistake | their better move: Nb3the answer: 10…Bxf5 11.exf5 exf4 |
| 50 | Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 3.0M games | 44% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 7.Nf5 2.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nb3the answer: 7…d5 8.Bg5 d4 |
| 51 | Catalan OpeningE01 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 586K games | 49% for White+2 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 9…O-O 16.1% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Rb8the answer: 10.a3 Nd5 11.Qxc4 |
| 52 | King's Indian AttackA05 · for White | <1%within 11 moves · 147K games | 51% for Whitewell prepared: too few games52% win chance after move 11 | 8…dxe4 13.1% play itMistake | their better move: Nc6the answer: 9.dxe4 O-O 10.e5 |
| 53 | Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 886K games | 44% for Black+2 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 9.exd4 7.7% play itMistake | their better move: Rd1the answer: 9…Nxd4 10.Nxd4 Qxd4 |
| 54 | Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 1.1M games | 50% for White±0 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 10…exd4 42.5% play itMistake | their better move: Nd7the answer: 11.g4 Nxg4 12.Nxd4 |
| 55 | Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 33M games | 44% for Black+3 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 8.Bf1 7.7% play itMistake | their better move: Bxc6the answer: 8…O-O 9.d3 Ne6 |
| 56 | Torre AttackA46 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 8.1M games | 48% for White+2 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 8…Bg4 2.2% play itMistake | their better move: Nc6the answer: 9.h3 Bxf3 10.Qxf3 |
| 57 | London SystemD00 · for White | <1%within 11 moves · 61M games | 49% for White+3 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 9…Qxc5 10% play itMistake | their better move: Be7the answer: 10.c4 Be7 11.Nb3 |
| 58 | Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 2.2M games | 49% for White+2 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 8…Bd6 2% play itBlunder · wins the queen | their better move: Qd7the answer: 9.Bc4 Bb8 10.Bxd5 |
| 59 | Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 2.3M games | 49% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 10…Ng6 3.6% play itMistake | their better move: O-Othe answer: 11.Ne1 Ne7 12.f4 |
| 60 | Réti OpeningA04 · for White | <1%within 11 moves · 951K games | 50% for White+3 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 61 | Modern BenoniA60 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 476K games | 45% for Black+1 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 62 | Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 1.7M games | 51% for White+2 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 63 | Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 735K games | 44% for Black±0 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 64 | Sicilian KanB41 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 1.2M games | 45% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 65 | Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 745K games | 43% for Black+3 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 66 | Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 109K games | 46% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | — | — |
| 67 | Marshall AttackC89 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 101K games | 44% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 68 | Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 2.5M games | 42% for Black+2 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 69 | Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 268K games | 46% for Black+4 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 70 | Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 606K games | 43% for Black+1 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.
Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.
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