Common opening mistakes at 1400–1599 Elo — and how to punish them
Lichess players rated 1400–1599 (the 1400s band; ≈950–1250 on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.
68% of Lichess players rated 1400–1599 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 10 moves (1.9M games, a lower bound).
The three highest for players rated 1400–1599 are the Vienna Gambit (68%), the King's Gambit (54%) and the Budapest Gambit (43%). 8 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (1200–1399); the Italian Game stands furthest above its place there, number 9 here against number 13.
70 openings, ranked for players rated 1400–1599
| # | Opening | Make a mistake | Win rate | Costliest slip | Punish it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vienna GambitC29 · for White | 68%within 10 moves · 1.9M games | 57% for White+11 pts well prepared63% win chance after move 11 | 3…exf4 42.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3 |
| 2 | King's GambitC30 · for White | 54%within 9 moves · 17M games | 53% for White+14 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 2…Nc6 23.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3 |
| 3 | Budapest GambitA52 · for Black | 43%within 11 moves · 885K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few games46% win chance after move 11 | 3.d5 19.7% play itMistake | their better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5 |
| 4 | Scotch GameC45 · for White | 38%within 10 moves · 13M games | 52% for White+9 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nf6 21.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Qf6the answer: 6.e5 Qe7 7.Be3 |
| 5 | Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black | 37%within 11 moves · 770K games | 45% for Black+5 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 7.e3 33% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e4the answer: 7…b5 8.a4 Bb4 |
| 6 | Scotch GambitC44 · for White | 27%within 11 moves · 3.1M games | 55% for White+14 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 64.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+ |
| 7 | Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black | 27%within 10 moves · 56M games | 47% for Black+9 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 2.e5 15.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5the answer: 2…c5 3.d4 cxd4 |
| 8 | King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White | 23%within 8 moves · 411K games | 55% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 3…Bc5 9.8% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: c6the answer: 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Qh5+ |
| 9 | Italian GameC50 · for White | 22%within 10 moves · 59M games | 50% for White+10 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 3…Nd4 5.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bc5the answer: 4.Nxd4 exd4 5.O-O |
| 10 | Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black | 22%within 11 moves · 22M games | 46% for Black+12 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 3.Bc4 18.5% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5 |
| 11 | Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black | 21%within 10 moves · 6.5M games | 46% for Black+16 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 2.Nf3 7.9% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: e5the answer: 2…Nxe4 3.Bc4 d5 |
| 12 | French DefenseC00 · for Black | 20%within 11 moves · 15M games | 49% for Black+7 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bb5 16.8% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3the answer: 5…Qa5 6.Bxc6+ bxc6 |
| 13 | Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black | 20%within 10 moves · 20M games | 46% for Black+13 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 8.Ba4 47.6% play itMistake | their better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4 |
| 14 | Modern BenoniA60 · for Black | 20%within 10 moves · 246K games | 45% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4.dxe6 13.9% play itMistake | their better move: Nc3the answer: 4…fxe6 5.Nc3 d5 |
| 15 | Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White | 19%within 10 moves · 1.9M games | 51% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 4…e5 10.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 5.Bc4 Nf6 6.Nf3 |
| 16 | Danish GambitC21 · for White | 18%within 10 moves · 4.2M games | 55% for White+13 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 4…Bc5 4% play itMistake · wins material | their better move: cxb2the answer: 5.Bxf7+ Kxf7 6.Qd5+ |
| 17 | Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White | 18%within 6 moves · 399K games | 49% for Whitewell prepared: too few games52% win chance after move 11 | 2…e6 12% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4 |
| 18 | Four Knights GameC47 · for White | 17%within 11 moves · 16M games | 48% for White+9 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxd4 43.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4 |
| 19 | Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White | 16%within 10 moves · 2.9M games | 49% for White+13 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nf6 14.3% play itMistake · wins a piece | their better move: Bg4the answer: 6.Nxe5 Bd6 7.Nf3 |
| 20 | Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White | 16%within 10 moves · 515K games | 53% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 5…Bf5 20.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: e6the answer: 6.Qb3 Qb6 7.cxd5 |
| 21 | Modern DefenseB06 · for Black | 14%within 10 moves · 16M games | 47% for Black+11 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 3.e5 25.5% play itMistake | their better move: Nc3the answer: 3…d6 4.f4 dxe5 |
| 22 | Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black | 12%within 10 moves · 766K games | 46% for Blackwell prepared: too few games47% win chance after move 11 | 5.O-O 6.2% play itMistake | their better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5 |
| 23 | Benko GambitA57 · for Black | 12%within 10 moves · 166K games | 51% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4.Nc3 11.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6 |
| 24 | Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black | 11%within 10 moves · 37M games | 49% for Black+7 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 2.Bc4 10.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.exd5 cxd5 |
| 25 | Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black | 9%within 10 moves · 596K games | 45% for Blackwell prepared: too few games44% win chance after move 11 | 4.Bf4 6% play itMistake | their better move: cxd5 |
| 26 | Slav DefenseD15 · for Black | 8%within 10 moves · 7.9M games | 45% for Black+8 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 3.c5 4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3 |
| 27 | English OpeningA10 · for White | 8%within 10 moves · 25M games | 51% for White+9 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 2…c6 5.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d4 |
| 28 | Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White | 7%within 10 moves · 38M games | 51% for White+11 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 3…Nf6 22.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.Nxe5 O-O 5.d4 |
| 29 | Evans GambitC51 · for White | 7%within 10 moves · 1.2M games | 53% for White+16 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxb4 20.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: a6the answer: 6.a5 Bc5 7.c3 |
| 30 | London SystemD00 · for White | 7%within 11 moves · 224M games | 51% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 1…e5 6.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 2.dxe5 Nc6 3.Nf3 |
| 31 | French WinawerC15 · for Black | 6%within 11 moves · 522K games | 46% for Blackwell prepared: too few games43% win chance after move 11 | 4.f3 2.6% play itMistake | their better move: e5 |
| 32 | Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black | 6%within 10 moves · 18M games | 47% for Black+8 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 3.e5 7.6% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 3…dxe5 4.dxe5 Qxd1+ |
| 33 | Réti OpeningA04 · for White | 6%within 11 moves · 462K games | 50% for White+5 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 3…e5 4.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: g6 |
| 34 | Ruy LopezC60 · for White | 5%within 10 moves · 29M games | 51% for White+11 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 4…a6 14.6% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5 |
| 35 | French TarraschC03 · for White | 5%within 11 moves · 419K games | 52% for White+9 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 4…cxd4 6.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5 |
| 36 | Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White | 5%within 10 moves · 7.4M games | 48% for White+9 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 4…c5 3.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e6 |
| 37 | Marshall AttackC89 · for Black | 4%within 11 moves · 29K games | 47% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 10.cxd4 42.6% play itBlunder · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 10…dxe4 |
| 38 | Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 1.7M games | 50% for Black+4 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 7.Nf5 10.9% play itMistake | their better move: Nb3the answer: 7…d5 8.Bg5 d4 |
| 39 | Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 459K games | 49% for Black+6 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 5.c5 3.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxd5 |
| 40 | King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 2.6M games | 47% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 6.e5 24.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Be2the answer: 6…dxe5 7.fxe5 Nfd7 |
| 41 | Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black | 2%within 10 moves · 33M games | 45% for Black+9 pts well prepared41% win chance after move 11 | 4.d5 4% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 4…Nxe4 5.Bd3 Nf6 |
| 42 | Vienna GameC25 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 17M games | 51% for White+11 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 3…Bb4 6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 4.Qh5 g6 5.Qf3 |
| 43 | Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black | 2%within 11 moves · 1.4M games | 49% for Black+10 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 8.Qd2 21.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb3the answer: 8…Ng4 9.Nxc6 dxc6 |
| 44 | Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black | 2%within 10 moves · 1.6M games | 48% for Black+10 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 6.Bd3 2.2% play itBlunder | their better move: Be3 |
| 45 | Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 624K games | 52% for White+7 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 6…Bf5 3.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: h6the answer: 7.Bxf6 Bxf6 8.Qb3 |
| 46 | Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 92M games | 49% for Black+10 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 3.d4 13.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5 |
| 47 | Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 4.4M games | 50% for White+6 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 17.9% play itBlunder · wins material · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 6.Qxd5 cxb2 7.Bxb2 |
| 48 | King's Indian AttackA05 · for White | 1%within 11 moves · 27K games | — | 8…Bd7 10.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 9.e5 Nd5 10.Qe2 |
| 49 | Sicilian KanB41 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 526K games | 52% for Black+12 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 6.e5 8.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 6…Qa5+ 7.Nc3 Qxe5+ |
| 50 | Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 922K games | 47% for White+4 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11 | 6…O-O-O 3.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 7.d4 cxd4 8.cxd4 |
| 51 | Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black | 1%within 11 moves · 657K games | 50% for Black+8 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 11.Nxd5 38.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nxc6the answer: 11…Qxd5 12.Nxc6 Qxc6 |
| 52 | Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 13M games | 41% for Black+16 pts well prepared38% win chance after move 11 | 4.Bg5 5.4% play itMistake | their better move: e3 |
| 53 | Colle SystemD05 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 2.8M games | 50% for White+5 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 6…c4 16.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4 |
| 54 | Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 1.3M games | 49% for White+7 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11 | 5…c5 6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5 |
| 55 | Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 1.4M games | 47% for Black+10 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 6.d5 5.9% play itMistake | their better move: dxc5 |
| 56 | French AdvanceC02 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 9.4M games | 46% for White+12 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 7…Nge7 16.3% play itMistake | their better move: Na5the answer: 8.Bxc4 dxc4 9.Nxc4 |
| 57 | Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 186K games | 50% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 9.Be2 6.1% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: O-O-Othe answer: 9…b4 10.Na4 d5 |
| 58 | Torre AttackA46 · for White | <1%within 9 moves · 5.4M games | 49% for White+7 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 8…Bg4 23.3% play itMistake | their better move: Nc6the answer: 9.h3 Bxf3 10.Qxf3 |
| 59 | Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 172K games | 46% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6.Bxb4 3.5% play itMistake | their better move: e3 |
| 60 | Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black | <1%within 9 moves · 3.5M games | 46% for Black+8 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 6.h3 6.4% play itMistake · wins material | their better move: e3the answer: 6…dxc4 7.e4 fxe4 |
| 61 | Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 110K games | 45% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6.b4 3.9% play itMistake | their better move: cxd5 |
| 62 | Classical SicilianB56 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 627K games | 47% for Black+7 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 9.Nd5 10.6% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Re1the answer: 9…Nxe4 10.Nd2 Nf6 |
| 63 | Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 277K games | 49% for Black+10 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 11.f3 11.2% play itMistake | their better move: Bxb5the answer: 11…fxe4 12.fxe4 Qh4+ |
| 64 | Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 2.8M games | 50% for White+10 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 7…exd5 15% play itMistake | their better move: Nxd5the answer: 8.d4 c4 9.b3 |
| 65 | Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 5.5M games | 45% for Black+6 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 6.Qb3 2.2% play itMistake | their better move: e3 |
| 66 | Catalan OpeningE01 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 74K games | 52% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 7…b5 24.3% play itMistake · wins material | their better move: Rb8the answer: 8.Ne5 Nxe5 9.Bxa8 |
| 67 | Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 6.9K games | — | — | — |
| 68 | Closed SicilianB23 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 6.3M games | 47% for White+9 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 69 | Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 5.3M games | 44% for Black+16 pts well prepared42% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 70 | Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 81K games | 39% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | — | — |
Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.
Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.
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