Common opening mistakes at 1400–1599 Elo — and how to punish them

Lichess players rated 1400–1599 (the 1400s band; ≈950–1250 on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.

68% of Lichess players rated 1400–1599 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 10 moves (1.9M games, a lower bound).

The three highest for players rated 1400–1599 are the Vienna Gambit (68%), the King's Gambit (54%) and the Budapest Gambit (43%). 8 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (1200–1399); the Italian Game stands furthest above its place there, number 9 here against number 13.

70 openings, ranked for players rated 1400–1599

#OpeningMake a mistakeWin rateCostliest slipPunish it
1Vienna GambitC29 · for White68%within 10 moves · 1.9M games57% for White+11 pts well prepared63% win chance after move 113…exf4 42.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3
2King's GambitC30 · for White54%within 9 moves · 17M games53% for White+14 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 112…Nc6 23.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3
3Budapest GambitA52 · for Black43%within 11 moves · 885K games49% for Blackwell prepared: too few games46% win chance after move 113.d5 19.7% play itMistaketheir better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5
4Scotch GameC45 · for White38%within 10 moves · 13M games52% for White+9 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 115…Nf6 21.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Qf6the answer: 6.e5 Qe7 7.Be3
5Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black37%within 11 moves · 770K games45% for Black+5 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 117.e3 33% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e4the answer: 7…b5 8.a4 Bb4
6Scotch GambitC44 · for White27%within 11 moves · 3.1M games55% for White+14 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 115…dxc3 64.7% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+
7Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black27%within 10 moves · 56M games47% for Black+9 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 112.e5 15.9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exd5the answer: 2…c5 3.d4 cxd4
8King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White23%within 8 moves · 411K games55% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games3…Bc5 9.8% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: c6the answer: 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Qh5+
9Italian GameC50 · for White22%within 10 moves · 59M games50% for White+10 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 113…Nd4 5.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bc5the answer: 4.Nxd4 exd4 5.O-O
10Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black22%within 11 moves · 22M games46% for Black+12 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 113.Bc4 18.5% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5
11Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black21%within 10 moves · 6.5M games46% for Black+16 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 112.Nf3 7.9% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: e5the answer: 2…Nxe4 3.Bc4 d5
12French DefenseC00 · for Black20%within 11 moves · 15M games49% for Black+7 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 115.Bb5 16.8% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nf3the answer: 5…Qa5 6.Bxc6+ bxc6
13Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black20%within 10 moves · 20M games46% for Black+13 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 118.Ba4 47.6% play itMistaketheir better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4
14Modern BenoniA60 · for Black20%within 10 moves · 246K games45% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games4.dxe6 13.9% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc3the answer: 4…fxe6 5.Nc3 d5
15Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White19%within 10 moves · 1.9M games51% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 114…e5 10.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 5.Bc4 Nf6 6.Nf3
16Danish GambitC21 · for White18%within 10 moves · 4.2M games55% for White+13 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 114…Bc5 4% play itMistake · wins materialtheir better move: cxb2the answer: 5.Bxf7+ Kxf7 6.Qd5+
17Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White18%within 6 moves · 399K games49% for Whitewell prepared: too few games52% win chance after move 112…e6 12% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4
18Four Knights GameC47 · for White17%within 11 moves · 16M games48% for White+9 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 115…Nxd4 43.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4
19Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White16%within 10 moves · 2.9M games49% for White+13 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 115…Nf6 14.3% play itMistake · wins a piecetheir better move: Bg4the answer: 6.Nxe5 Bd6 7.Nf3
20Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White16%within 10 moves · 515K games53% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 115…Bf5 20.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: e6the answer: 6.Qb3 Qb6 7.cxd5
21Modern DefenseB06 · for Black14%within 10 moves · 16M games47% for Black+11 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 113.e5 25.5% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc3the answer: 3…d6 4.f4 dxe5
22Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black12%within 10 moves · 766K games46% for Blackwell prepared: too few games47% win chance after move 115.O-O 6.2% play itMistaketheir better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5
23Benko GambitA57 · for Black12%within 10 moves · 166K games51% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games4.Nc3 11.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6
24Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black11%within 10 moves · 37M games49% for Black+7 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 112.Bc4 10.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.exd5 cxd5
25Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black9%within 10 moves · 596K games45% for Blackwell prepared: too few games44% win chance after move 114.Bf4 6% play itMistaketheir better move: cxd5
26Slav DefenseD15 · for Black8%within 10 moves · 7.9M games45% for Black+8 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 113.c5 4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf3
27English OpeningA10 · for White8%within 10 moves · 25M games51% for White+9 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 112…c6 5.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d4
28Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White7%within 10 moves · 38M games51% for White+11 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 113…Nf6 22.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.Nxe5 O-O 5.d4
29Evans GambitC51 · for White7%within 10 moves · 1.2M games53% for White+16 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 115…Nxb4 20.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: a6the answer: 6.a5 Bc5 7.c3
30London SystemD00 · for White7%within 11 moves · 224M games51% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 111…e5 6.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 2.dxe5 Nc6 3.Nf3
31French WinawerC15 · for Black6%within 11 moves · 522K games46% for Blackwell prepared: too few games43% win chance after move 114.f3 2.6% play itMistaketheir better move: e5
32Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black6%within 10 moves · 18M games47% for Black+8 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 113.e5 7.6% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Nc3the answer: 3…dxe5 4.dxe5 Qxd1+
33Réti OpeningA04 · for White6%within 11 moves · 462K games50% for White+5 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 113…e5 4.9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: g6
34Ruy LopezC60 · for White5%within 10 moves · 29M games51% for White+11 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 114…a6 14.6% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5
35French TarraschC03 · for White5%within 11 moves · 419K games52% for White+9 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 114…cxd4 6.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exd5
36Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White5%within 10 moves · 7.4M games48% for White+9 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 114…c5 3.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e6
37Marshall AttackC89 · for Black4%within 11 moves · 29K games47% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games10.cxd4 42.6% play itBlunder · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 10…dxe4
38Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 1.7M games50% for Black+4 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 117.Nf5 10.9% play itMistaketheir better move: Nb3the answer: 7…d5 8.Bg5 d4
39Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 459K games49% for Black+6 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 115.c5 3.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxd5
40King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 2.6M games47% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 116.e5 24.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Be2the answer: 6…dxe5 7.fxe5 Nfd7
41Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black2%within 10 moves · 33M games45% for Black+9 pts well prepared41% win chance after move 114.d5 4% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Nc3the answer: 4…Nxe4 5.Bd3 Nf6
42Vienna GameC25 · for White2%within 10 moves · 17M games51% for White+11 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 113…Bb4 6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 4.Qh5 g6 5.Qf3
43Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black2%within 11 moves · 1.4M games49% for Black+10 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 118.Qd2 21.5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb3the answer: 8…Ng4 9.Nxc6 dxc6
44Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black2%within 10 moves · 1.6M games48% for Black+10 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 116.Bd3 2.2% play itBlundertheir better move: Be3
45Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White1%within 10 moves · 624K games52% for White+7 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 116…Bf5 3.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: h6the answer: 7.Bxf6 Bxf6 8.Qb3
46Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 92M games49% for Black+10 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 113.d4 13.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5
47Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White1%within 10 moves · 4.4M games50% for White+6 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 115…dxc3 17.9% play itBlunder · wins material · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 6.Qxd5 cxb2 7.Bxb2
48King's Indian AttackA05 · for White1%within 11 moves · 27K games—8…Bd7 10.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 9.e5 Nd5 10.Qe2
49Sicilian KanB41 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 526K games52% for Black+12 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 116.e5 8.4% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Nc3the answer: 6…Qa5+ 7.Nc3 Qxe5+
50Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White1%within 10 moves · 922K games47% for White+4 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 116…O-O-O 3.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d5the answer: 7.d4 cxd4 8.cxd4
51Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black1%within 11 moves · 657K games50% for Black+8 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 1111.Nxd5 38.7% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nxc6the answer: 11…Qxd5 12.Nxc6 Qxc6
52Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 13M games41% for Black+16 pts well prepared38% win chance after move 114.Bg5 5.4% play itMistaketheir better move: e3
53Colle SystemD05 · for White1%within 10 moves · 2.8M games50% for White+5 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 116…c4 16.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4
54Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 1.3M games49% for White+7 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 115…c5 6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5
55Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 1.4M games47% for Black+10 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 116.d5 5.9% play itMistaketheir better move: dxc5
56French AdvanceC02 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 9.4M games46% for White+12 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 117…Nge7 16.3% play itMistaketheir better move: Na5the answer: 8.Bxc4 dxc4 9.Nxc4
57Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 186K games50% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games9.Be2 6.1% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: O-O-Othe answer: 9…b4 10.Na4 d5
58Torre AttackA46 · for White<1%within 9 moves · 5.4M games49% for White+7 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 118…Bg4 23.3% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc6the answer: 9.h3 Bxf3 10.Qxf3
59Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 172K games46% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games6.Bxb4 3.5% play itMistaketheir better move: e3
60Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black<1%within 9 moves · 3.5M games46% for Black+8 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 116.h3 6.4% play itMistake · wins materialtheir better move: e3the answer: 6…dxc4 7.e4 fxe4
61Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 110K games45% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games6.b4 3.9% play itMistaketheir better move: cxd5
62Classical SicilianB56 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 627K games47% for Black+7 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 119.Nd5 10.6% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Re1the answer: 9…Nxe4 10.Nd2 Nf6
63Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 277K games49% for Black+10 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 1111.f3 11.2% play itMistaketheir better move: Bxb5the answer: 11…fxe4 12.fxe4 Qh4+
64Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 2.8M games50% for White+10 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 117…exd5 15% play itMistaketheir better move: Nxd5the answer: 8.d4 c4 9.b3
65Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 5.5M games45% for Black+6 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 116.Qb3 2.2% play itMistaketheir better move: e3
66Catalan OpeningE01 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 74K games52% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games7…b5 24.3% play itMistake · wins materialtheir better move: Rb8the answer: 8.Ne5 Nxe5 9.Bxa8
67Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 6.9K games———
68Closed SicilianB23 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 6.3M games47% for White+9 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11——
69Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 5.3M games44% for Black+16 pts well prepared42% win chance after move 11——
70Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 81K games39% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games——

Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.

Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.

Frequently asked questions

68% of Lichess players rated 1400–1599 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 10 moves (1.9M games, a lower bound). That is the top of this page’s ranking; the table lists every opening we teach in the same order, with the slip that costs the most and the answer to it.

Your games already show which of these openings you actually reach — the trainer ranks this list for your own rating and drills the lines behind it.

Analyze your games free