Common opening mistakes at 1600–1799 Elo — and how to punish them
Lichess players rated 1600–1799 (the 1600s band; ≈1250–1500 on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.
62% of Lichess players rated 1600–1799 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 10 moves (1.9M games, a lower bound).
The three highest for players rated 1600–1799 are the Vienna Gambit (62%), the King's Gambit (52%) and the Budapest Gambit (39%). 9 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (1400–1599); the Danish Gambit stands furthest above its place there, number 8 here against number 16.
70 openings, ranked for players rated 1600–1799
| # | Opening | Make a mistake | Win rate | Costliest slip | Punish it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vienna GambitC29 · for White | 62%within 10 moves · 1.9M games | 56% for White+9 pts well prepared61% win chance after move 11 | 3…exf4 38% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3 |
| 2 | King's GambitC30 · for White | 52%within 9 moves · 23M games | 52% for White+12 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 2…Nc6 21.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3 |
| 3 | Budapest GambitA52 · for Black | 39%within 11 moves · 2.0M games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few games46% win chance after move 11 | 3.d5 23.1% play itMistake | their better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5 |
| 4 | Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black | 34%within 11 moves · 1.7M games | 45% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 7.e3 25.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e4the answer: 7…b5 8.a4 Bb4 |
| 5 | Scotch GameC45 · for White | 27%within 10 moves · 13M games | 52% for White+7 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nf6 16.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Qf6the answer: 6.e5 Qe7 7.Be3 |
| 6 | Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black | 24%within 10 moves · 59M games | 47% for Black+7 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 2.e5 12.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5the answer: 2…c5 3.d4 cxd4 |
| 7 | Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black | 23%within 11 moves · 18M games | 46% for Black+11 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 3.Bc4 18.7% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5 |
| 8 | Danish GambitC21 · for White | 22%within 10 moves · 5.1M games | 55% for White+13 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 4…Bc5 4.4% play itMistake · wins material | their better move: cxb2the answer: 5.Bxf7+ Kxf7 6.Qd5+ |
| 9 | Italian GameC50 · for White | 21%within 10 moves · 53M games | 50% for White+8 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 6…Ng4 27.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 7.cxd4 Bb4+ 8.Nc3 |
| 10 | Scotch GambitC44 · for White | 20%within 11 moves · 4.3M games | 54% for White+11 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 57.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+ |
| 11 | King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White | 19%within 8 moves · 630K games | 54% for Whitewell prepared: too few games57% win chance after move 11 | 3…Bc5 8.1% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: c6the answer: 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Qh5+ |
| 12 | Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black | 18%within 10 moves · 8.0M games | 48% for Black+7 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 2.d3 6.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 2…c5 3.Nf3 Nc6 |
| 13 | Modern BenoniA60 · for Black | 18%within 10 moves · 445K games | 47% for Black+9 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 4.dxe6 12.9% play itMistake | their better move: Nc3the answer: 4…fxe6 5.Nc3 d5 |
| 14 | Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White | 18%within 6 moves · 903K games | 50% for Whitewell prepared: too few games51% win chance after move 11 | 2…e6 12.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4 |
| 15 | Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White | 17%within 10 moves · 3.8M games | 51% for White+6 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 4…e5 7.8% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 5.Bc4 Nf6 6.Nf3 |
| 16 | French DefenseC00 · for Black | 16%within 11 moves · 23M games | 48% for Black+6 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 5.Bb5 16% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3the answer: 5…Qa5 6.Bxc6+ bxc6 |
| 17 | Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black | 15%within 10 moves · 17M games | 46% for Black+11 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 8.Ba4 36.6% play itMistake | their better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4 |
| 18 | Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White | 15%within 10 moves · 1.2M games | 52% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 5…Bf5 18% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: e6the answer: 6.Qb3 Qb6 7.cxd5 |
| 19 | Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black | 13%within 11 moves · 633K games | 47% for Blackwell prepared: too few games46% win chance after move 11 | 5.O-O 7% play itMistake | their better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5 |
| 20 | Modern DefenseB06 · for Black | 13%within 11 moves · 20M games | 47% for Black+7 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 3.e5 16.7% play itMistake | their better move: Nc3the answer: 3…d6 4.f4 dxe5 |
| 21 | Four Knights GameC47 · for White | 13%within 11 moves · 11M games | 50% for White+8 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxd4 33.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4 |
| 22 | Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White | 12%within 10 moves · 2.4M games | 49% for White+11 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nf6 7.9% play itMistake · wins a piece | their better move: Bg4the answer: 6.Nxe5 Bd6 7.Nf3 |
| 23 | Benko GambitA57 · for Black | 10%within 10 moves · 546K games | 53% for Black+5 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 4.Nc3 9.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6 |
| 24 | Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black | 9%within 10 moves · 47M games | 48% for Black+6 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 2.Bc4 7.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.exd5 cxd5 |
| 25 | Slav DefenseD15 · for Black | 6%within 10 moves · 12M games | 45% for Black+7 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 3.c5 2.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3 |
| 26 | English OpeningA10 · for White | 6%within 10 moves · 33M games | 51% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 2…c6 5.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d4 |
| 27 | Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black | 6%within 10 moves · 743K games | 45% for Black+6 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 4.Bf4 5.4% play itMistake | their better move: cxd5 |
| 28 | London SystemD00 · for White | 6%within 11 moves · 259M games | 50% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 1…e5 5.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 2.dxe5 Nc6 3.Nf3 |
| 29 | Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White | 5%within 10 moves · 32M games | 50% for White+9 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 3…Nf6 20.9% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.Nxe5 O-O 5.d4 |
| 30 | French TarraschC03 · for White | 4%within 11 moves · 1.3M games | 52% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 4…cxd4 7.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5 |
| 31 | Ruy LopezC60 · for White | 4%within 10 moves · 26M games | 51% for White+7 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 4…a6 11.6% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5 |
| 32 | Evans GambitC51 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 1.5M games | 54% for White+11 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxb4 15% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: a6the answer: 6.a5 Bc5 7.c3 |
| 33 | French WinawerC15 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 901K games | 46% for Black+18 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 11 | 5.Be3 5.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: a3 |
| 34 | Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 21M games | 47% for Black+6 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 3.e5 4.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 3…dxe5 4.dxe5 Qxd1+ |
| 35 | Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 3.7M games | 49% for Black+5 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 7.Nf5 8.9% play itMistake | their better move: Nb3the answer: 7…d5 8.Bg5 d4 |
| 36 | Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 1.2M games | 50% for Black+8 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 7.f4 5.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3the answer: 7…c5 8.Nf3 Nc6 |
| 37 | Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 9.0M games | 47% for White+9 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 4…c5 2.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e6 |
| 38 | King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 4.6M games | 47% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 6.e5 19.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Be2the answer: 6…dxe5 7.fxe5 Nfd7 |
| 39 | Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black | 2%within 11 moves · 2.7M games | 48% for Black+9 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 8.Qd2 18.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb3the answer: 8…Ng4 9.Nxc6 dxc6 |
| 40 | Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 1.2M games | 52% for White+6 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 6…Bf5 4.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: h6the answer: 7.Bxf6 Bxf6 8.Qb3 |
| 41 | Vienna GameC25 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 15M games | 52% for White+9 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 3…Bb4 5.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 4.Qh5 g6 5.Qf3 |
| 42 | Marshall AttackC89 · for Black | 2%within 11 moves · 107K games | 47% for Black+5 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 10.cxd4 23.9% play itBlunder · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 10…dxe4 |
| 43 | Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 30M games | 45% for Black+6 pts well prepared42% win chance after move 11 | 8.f4 15.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: a4the answer: 8…d5 9.exd5 cxd5 |
| 44 | Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black | 1%within 11 moves · 1.3M games | 49% for Black+6 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 11.Nxd5 46.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nxc6the answer: 11…Qxd5 12.Nxc6 Qxc6 |
| 45 | Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 127M games | 48% for Black+8 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 3.d4 9.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5 |
| 46 | Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 7.0M games | 50% for White+5 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 13.7% play itBlunder · wins material · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 6.Qxd5 cxb2 7.Bxb2 |
| 47 | Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 3.1M games | 48% for Black+7 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 8.f4 10.8% play itBlunder · wins the queen | their better move: Be3the answer: 8…Nxd4 9.Qxd4 Bc5 |
| 48 | King's Indian AttackA05 · for White | 1%within 11 moves · 60K games | 49% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 8…Bd7 10.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 9.e5 Nd5 10.Qe2 |
| 49 | Colle SystemD05 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 3.3M games | 50% for White+4 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 6…c4 15% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4 |
| 50 | Sicilian KanB41 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 1.4M games | 51% for Black+9 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 6.e5 4.1% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 6…Qa5+ 7.Nc3 Qxe5+ |
| 51 | Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White | 1%within 9 moves · 1.8M games | 48% for White+7 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11 | 5…c5 6.6% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5 |
| 52 | Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 1.3M games | 48% for White+4 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 6…O-O-O 2.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 7.d4 cxd4 8.cxd4 |
| 53 | Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 12M games | 41% for Black+14 pts well prepared39% win chance after move 11 | 4.Bg5 4.4% play itMistake | their better move: e3 |
| 54 | Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 2.7M games | 47% for Black+8 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 6.d5 4.5% play itMistake | their better move: dxc5 |
| 55 | French AdvanceC02 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 11M games | 45% for White+11 pts well prepared50% win chance after move 11 | 7…Nge7 10.7% play itMistake | their better move: Na5the answer: 8.Bxc4 dxc4 9.Nxc4 |
| 56 | Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 422K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 9.Be2 6.8% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: O-O-Othe answer: 9…b4 10.Na4 d5 |
| 57 | Réti OpeningA04 · for White | <1%within 11 moves · 624K games | 50% for White+1 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 5…Qd7 5.5% play itMistake | their better move: e6the answer: 6.Ne5 Qc8 7.Nxg4 |
| 58 | Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 5.1M games | 46% for Black+6 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 6.h3 8.4% play itMistake · wins material | their better move: e3the answer: 6…dxc4 7.e4 fxe4 |
| 59 | Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 245K games | 47% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6.b4 3.9% play itMistake | their better move: cxd5 |
| 60 | Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 643K games | 49% for Black+8 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 11.f3 10.8% play itMistake | their better move: Bxb5the answer: 11…fxe4 12.fxe4 Qh4+ |
| 61 | Classical SicilianB56 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 1.2M games | 47% for Black+6 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 9.Nd5 7.2% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Re1the answer: 9…Nxe4 10.Nd2 Nf6 |
| 62 | Torre AttackA46 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 8.3M games | 49% for White+5 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 8…Bg4 15.5% play itMistake | their better move: Nc6the answer: 9.h3 Bxf3 10.Qxf3 |
| 63 | Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 3.8M games | 50% for White+9 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 7…exd5 16% play itMistake | their better move: Nxd5the answer: 8.d4 c4 9.b3 |
| 64 | Closed SicilianB23 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 9.1M games | 49% for White+7 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 9…f5 46.7% play itMistake | their better move: Bxh6the answer: 10.h5 |
| 65 | Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 15K games | — | 10.Nd2 6.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b3the answer: 10…Na6 11.a3 Ng4 |
| 66 | Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 9.3M games | 45% for Black+6 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 6.Qb3 2.2% play itMistake | their better move: e3 |
| 67 | Catalan OpeningE01 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 155K games | 53% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 7…b5 21.3% play itMistake · wins material | their better move: Rb8the answer: 8.Ne5 Nxe5 9.Bxa8 |
| 68 | Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 4.2M games | 44% for Black+10 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 69 | Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 91K games | 43% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | — | — |
| 70 | Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 307K games | 44% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.
Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.
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