Common opening mistakes at 1600–1799 Elo — and how to punish them

Lichess players rated 1600–1799 (the 1600s band; ≈1250–1500 on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.

62% of Lichess players rated 1600–1799 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 10 moves (1.9M games, a lower bound).

The three highest for players rated 1600–1799 are the Vienna Gambit (62%), the King's Gambit (52%) and the Budapest Gambit (39%). 9 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band down (1400–1599); the Danish Gambit stands furthest above its place there, number 8 here against number 16.

70 openings, ranked for players rated 1600–1799

#OpeningMake a mistakeWin rateCostliest slipPunish it
1Vienna GambitC29 · for White62%within 10 moves · 1.9M games56% for White+9 pts well prepared61% win chance after move 113…exf4 38% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3
2King's GambitC30 · for White52%within 9 moves · 23M games52% for White+12 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 112…Nc6 21.7% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3
3Budapest GambitA52 · for Black39%within 11 moves · 2.0M games49% for Blackwell prepared: too few games46% win chance after move 113.d5 23.1% play itMistaketheir better move: dxe5the answer: 3…Bb4+ 4.Bd2 a5
4Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black34%within 11 moves · 1.7M games45% for Black+4 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 117.e3 25.5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e4the answer: 7…b5 8.a4 Bb4
5Scotch GameC45 · for White27%within 10 moves · 13M games52% for White+7 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 115…Nf6 16.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Qf6the answer: 6.e5 Qe7 7.Be3
6Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black24%within 10 moves · 59M games47% for Black+7 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 112.e5 12.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exd5the answer: 2…c5 3.d4 cxd4
7Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black23%within 11 moves · 18M games46% for Black+11 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 113.Bc4 18.7% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5
8Danish GambitC21 · for White22%within 10 moves · 5.1M games55% for White+13 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 114…Bc5 4.4% play itMistake · wins materialtheir better move: cxb2the answer: 5.Bxf7+ Kxf7 6.Qd5+
9Italian GameC50 · for White21%within 10 moves · 53M games50% for White+8 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 116…Ng4 27.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: d5the answer: 7.cxd4 Bb4+ 8.Nc3
10Scotch GambitC44 · for White20%within 11 moves · 4.3M games54% for White+11 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 115…dxc3 57.9% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+
11King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White19%within 8 moves · 630K games54% for Whitewell prepared: too few games57% win chance after move 113…Bc5 8.1% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: c6the answer: 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Qh5+
12Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black18%within 10 moves · 8.0M games48% for Black+7 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 112.d3 6.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 2…c5 3.Nf3 Nc6
13Modern BenoniA60 · for Black18%within 10 moves · 445K games47% for Black+9 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 114.dxe6 12.9% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc3the answer: 4…fxe6 5.Nc3 d5
14Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White18%within 6 moves · 903K games50% for Whitewell prepared: too few games51% win chance after move 112…e6 12.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4
15Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White17%within 10 moves · 3.8M games51% for White+6 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 114…e5 7.8% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 5.Bc4 Nf6 6.Nf3
16French DefenseC00 · for Black16%within 11 moves · 23M games48% for Black+6 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 115.Bb5 16% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nf3the answer: 5…Qa5 6.Bxc6+ bxc6
17Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black15%within 10 moves · 17M games46% for Black+11 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 118.Ba4 36.6% play itMistaketheir better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4
18Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White15%within 10 moves · 1.2M games52% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 115…Bf5 18% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: e6the answer: 6.Qb3 Qb6 7.cxd5
19Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black13%within 11 moves · 633K games47% for Blackwell prepared: too few games46% win chance after move 115.O-O 7% play itMistaketheir better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5
20Modern DefenseB06 · for Black13%within 11 moves · 20M games47% for Black+7 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 113.e5 16.7% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc3the answer: 3…d6 4.f4 dxe5
21Four Knights GameC47 · for White13%within 11 moves · 11M games50% for White+8 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 115…Nxd4 33.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4
22Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White12%within 10 moves · 2.4M games49% for White+11 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 115…Nf6 7.9% play itMistake · wins a piecetheir better move: Bg4the answer: 6.Nxe5 Bd6 7.Nf3
23Benko GambitA57 · for Black10%within 10 moves · 546K games53% for Black+5 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 114.Nc3 9.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6
24Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black9%within 10 moves · 47M games48% for Black+6 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 112.Bc4 7.8% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.exd5 cxd5
25Slav DefenseD15 · for Black6%within 10 moves · 12M games45% for Black+7 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 113.c5 2.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf3
26English OpeningA10 · for White6%within 10 moves · 33M games51% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 112…c6 5.2% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d4
27Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black6%within 10 moves · 743K games45% for Black+6 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 114.Bf4 5.4% play itMistaketheir better move: cxd5
28London SystemD00 · for White6%within 11 moves · 259M games50% for White+5 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 111…e5 5.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 2.dxe5 Nc6 3.Nf3
29Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White5%within 10 moves · 32M games50% for White+9 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 113…Nf6 20.9% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 4.Nxe5 O-O 5.d4
30French TarraschC03 · for White4%within 11 moves · 1.3M games52% for White+7 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 114…cxd4 7.5% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: exd5
31Ruy LopezC60 · for White4%within 10 moves · 26M games51% for White+7 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 114…a6 11.6% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5
32Evans GambitC51 · for White3%within 10 moves · 1.5M games54% for White+11 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 115…Nxb4 15% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: a6the answer: 6.a5 Bc5 7.c3
33French WinawerC15 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 901K games46% for Black+18 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 115.Be3 5.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: a3
34Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 21M games47% for Black+6 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 113.e5 4.4% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Nc3the answer: 3…dxe5 4.dxe5 Qxd1+
35Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 3.7M games49% for Black+5 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 117.Nf5 8.9% play itMistaketheir better move: Nb3the answer: 7…d5 8.Bg5 d4
36Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 1.2M games50% for Black+8 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 117.f4 5.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf3the answer: 7…c5 8.Nf3 Nc6
37Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White3%within 10 moves · 9.0M games47% for White+9 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 114…c5 2.7% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e6
38King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black3%within 11 moves · 4.6M games47% for Black+5 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 116.e5 19.7% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Be2the answer: 6…dxe5 7.fxe5 Nfd7
39Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black2%within 11 moves · 2.7M games48% for Black+9 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 118.Qd2 18.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb3the answer: 8…Ng4 9.Nxc6 dxc6
40Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White2%within 10 moves · 1.2M games52% for White+6 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 116…Bf5 4.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30their better move: h6the answer: 7.Bxf6 Bxf6 8.Qb3
41Vienna GameC25 · for White2%within 10 moves · 15M games52% for White+9 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 113…Bb4 5.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nf6the answer: 4.Qh5 g6 5.Qf3
42Marshall AttackC89 · for Black2%within 11 moves · 107K games47% for Black+5 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 1110.cxd4 23.9% play itBlunder · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 10…dxe4
43Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 30M games45% for Black+6 pts well prepared42% win chance after move 118.f4 15.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: a4the answer: 8…d5 9.exd5 cxd5
44Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black1%within 11 moves · 1.3M games49% for Black+6 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 1111.Nxd5 46.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Nxc6the answer: 11…Qxd5 12.Nxc6 Qxc6
45Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 127M games48% for Black+8 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 113.d4 9.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Bd3 d5
46Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White1%within 10 moves · 7.0M games50% for White+5 pts well prepared56% win chance after move 115…dxc3 13.7% play itBlunder · wins material · verified d30their better move: Nc6the answer: 6.Qxd5 cxb2 7.Bxb2
47Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 3.1M games48% for Black+7 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 118.f4 10.8% play itBlunder · wins the queentheir better move: Be3the answer: 8…Nxd4 9.Qxd4 Bc5
48King's Indian AttackA05 · for White1%within 11 moves · 60K games49% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games8…Bd7 10.3% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: e5the answer: 9.e5 Nd5 10.Qe2
49Colle SystemD05 · for White1%within 10 moves · 3.3M games50% for White+4 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 116…c4 15% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4
50Sicilian KanB41 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 1.4M games51% for Black+9 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 116.e5 4.1% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Nc3the answer: 6…Qa5+ 7.Nc3 Qxe5+
51Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White1%within 9 moves · 1.8M games48% for White+7 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 115…c5 6.6% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.e5 Qd8 7.d5
52Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White1%within 10 moves · 1.3M games48% for White+4 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 116…O-O-O 2.1% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: d5the answer: 7.d4 cxd4 8.cxd4
53Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 12M games41% for Black+14 pts well prepared39% win chance after move 114.Bg5 4.4% play itMistaketheir better move: e3
54Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black1%within 10 moves · 2.7M games47% for Black+8 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 116.d5 4.5% play itMistaketheir better move: dxc5
55French AdvanceC02 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 11M games45% for White+11 pts well prepared50% win chance after move 117…Nge7 10.7% play itMistaketheir better move: Na5the answer: 8.Bxc4 dxc4 9.Nxc4
56Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 422K games49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games9.Be2 6.8% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: O-O-Othe answer: 9…b4 10.Na4 d5
57Réti OpeningA04 · for White<1%within 11 moves · 624K games50% for White+1 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 115…Qd7 5.5% play itMistaketheir better move: e6the answer: 6.Ne5 Qc8 7.Nxg4
58Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 5.1M games46% for Black+6 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 116.h3 8.4% play itMistake · wins materialtheir better move: e3the answer: 6…dxc4 7.e4 fxe4
59Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 245K games47% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games6.b4 3.9% play itMistaketheir better move: cxd5
60Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 643K games49% for Black+8 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 1111.f3 10.8% play itMistaketheir better move: Bxb5the answer: 11…fxe4 12.fxe4 Qh4+
61Classical SicilianB56 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 1.2M games47% for Black+6 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 119.Nd5 7.2% play itMistake · wins a pawntheir better move: Re1the answer: 9…Nxe4 10.Nd2 Nf6
62Torre AttackA46 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 8.3M games49% for White+5 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 118…Bg4 15.5% play itMistaketheir better move: Nc6the answer: 9.h3 Bxf3 10.Qxf3
63Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 3.8M games50% for White+9 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 117…exd5 16% play itMistaketheir better move: Nxd5the answer: 8.d4 c4 9.b3
64Closed SicilianB23 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 9.1M games49% for White+7 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 119…f5 46.7% play itMistaketheir better move: Bxh6the answer: 10.h5
65Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 15K games—10.Nd2 6.4% play itMistake · verified d30their better move: b3the answer: 10…Na6 11.a3 Ng4
66Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 9.3M games45% for Black+6 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 116.Qb3 2.2% play itMistaketheir better move: e3
67Catalan OpeningE01 · for White<1%within 10 moves · 155K games53% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games7…b5 21.3% play itMistake · wins materialtheir better move: Rb8the answer: 8.Ne5 Nxe5 9.Bxa8
68Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black<1%within 10 moves · 4.2M games44% for Black+10 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 11——
69Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 91K games43% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games——
70Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black<1%within 11 moves · 307K games44% for Black+3 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11——

Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.

Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.

Frequently asked questions

62% of Lichess players rated 1600–1799 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 10 moves (1.9M games, a lower bound). That is the top of this page’s ranking; the table lists every opening we teach in the same order, with the slip that costs the most and the answer to it.

Your games already show which of these openings you actually reach — the trainer ranks this list for your own rating and drills the lines behind it.

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