Common opening mistakes under 1200 Elo — and how to punish them
Lichess players rated under 1200 (the <1200 band; ≈<650 on Chess.com). For every opening we teach: the share of them who reach it and then make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 11 moves, ranked highest first, with the costliest slip and our answer to it. How we measure.
75% of Lichess players rated under 1200 who reach the Vienna Gambit make a mistake or blunder on the lines we teach within the first 10 moves (1.2M games, a lower bound).
The three highest for players rated under 1200 are the Vienna Gambit (75%), the King's Gambit (61%) and the Budapest Gambit (53%). 9 of the ten highest here are also among the ten highest one band up (1200–1399); the Alekhine's Defense stands furthest above its place there, number 6 here against number 9.
70 openings, ranked for players rated under 1200
| # | Opening | Make a mistake | Win rate | Costliest slip | Punish it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vienna GambitC29 · for White | 75%within 10 moves · 1.2M games | 58% for White+13 pts well prepared65% win chance after move 11 | 3…exf4 51% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 4.e5 Ng8 5.Nf3 |
| 2 | King's GambitC30 · for White | 61%within 9 moves · 5.8M games | 53% for White+18 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 2…Nc6 20.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exf4the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d3 |
| 3 | Budapest GambitA52 · for Black | 53%within 10 moves · 103K games | 48% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 3.e3 14.6% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: dxe5the answer: 3…exd4 4.exd4 Bb4+ |
| 4 | Scotch GameC45 · for White | 50%within 10 moves · 5.5M games | 52% for White+16 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nf6 36.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Qf6the answer: 6.e5 Qe7 7.Be3 |
| 5 | Scandinavian DefenseB01 · for Black | 46%within 10 moves · 50M games | 46% for Black+18 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 2.e5 17.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5the answer: 2…c5 3.d4 cxd4 |
| 6 | Alekhine's DefenseB02 · for Black | 36%within 10 moves · 9.6M games | 44% for Black+24 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 11 | 2.Nf3 11.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: e5the answer: 2…Nxe4 3.Bc4 d5 |
| 7 | Semi-Slav DefenseD43 · for Black | 33%within 11 moves · 128K games | 46% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 5.Bf4 11.4% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Bg5the answer: 5…dxc4 6.e3 b5 |
| 8 | Scotch GambitC44 · for White | 31%within 11 moves · 717K games | 55% for White+19 pts well prepared59% win chance after move 11 | 5…dxc3 71.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 6.Bxf7+ Kxf7 7.Qd5+ |
| 9 | King's Gambit: Bishop's GambitC33 · for White | 29%within 8 moves · 98K games | 55% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 3…Bc5 9.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: c6the answer: 4.Bxf7+ Kxf7 5.Qh5+ |
| 10 | Modern BenoniA60 · for Black | 26%within 10 moves · 30K games | 44% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4.dxe6 16% play itMistake | their better move: Nc3the answer: 4…fxe6 5.Nc3 d5 |
| 11 | French DefenseC00 · for Black | 25%within 10 moves · 5.5M games | 48% for Black+15 pts well prepared48% win chance after move 11 | 4.dxc5 9.1% play itMistake · wins material · verified d30 | their better move: c3the answer: 4…Nc6 5.Nf3 Bxc5 |
| 12 | Ruy Lopez ExchangeC68 · for White | 25%within 10 moves · 2.1M games | 52% for White+13 pts well prepared58% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nf6 27.6% play itMistake · wins a piece | their better move: Bg4the answer: 6.Nxe5 Bd6 7.Nf3 |
| 13 | Smith-Morra GambitB21 · for White | 25%within 10 moves · 198K games | 50% for Whitewell prepared: too few games52% win chance after move 11 | 4…e5 14.7% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: Nc6the answer: 5.Bc4 Nf6 6.Nf3 |
| 14 | Petrov DefenseC42 · for Black | 24%within 10 moves · 22M games | 42% for Black+21 pts well prepared41% win chance after move 11 | 3.Bc4 18.4% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe5the answer: 3…Nxe4 4.Nxe5 d5 |
| 15 | Two Knights DefenseC55 · for Black | 24%within 10 moves · 16M games | 44% for Black+19 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 8.Ba4 53.1% play itMistake | their better move: Bd3the answer: 8…h6 9.Nf3 e4 |
| 16 | Italian GameC50 · for White | 22%within 10 moves · 37M games | 51% for White+16 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 3…Nd4 4.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bc5the answer: 4.Nxd4 exd4 5.O-O |
| 17 | Four Knights GameC47 · for White | 18%within 11 moves · 21M games | 48% for White+13 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxd4 51.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Bb4the answer: 6.Qxd4 d6 7.Bf4 |
| 18 | Benko GambitA57 · for Black | 18%within 10 moves · 10K games | — | 4.Nc3 13.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb5the answer: 4…b4 5.Nb1 e6 |
| 19 | Modern DefenseB06 · for Black | 17%within 10 moves · 7.7M games | 48% for Black+15 pts well prepared45% win chance after move 11 | 3.e5 29.3% play itMistake | their better move: Nc3the answer: 3…d6 4.f4 dxe5 |
| 20 | Caro-Kann DefenseB10 · for Black | 16%within 10 moves · 18M games | 49% for Black+10 pts well prepared49% win chance after move 11 | 2.Bc4 12.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d4the answer: 2…d5 3.exd5 cxd5 |
| 21 | Sicilian Wing GambitB20 · for White | 16%within 6 moves · 58K games | 48% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 2…e6 9.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxb4the answer: 3.bxc5 Bxc5 4.d4 |
| 22 | Pirc DefenseB07 · for Black | 15%within 10 moves · 13M games | 46% for Black+13 pts well prepared47% win chance after move 11 | 3.e5 16.6% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 3…dxe5 4.dxe5 Qxd1+ |
| 23 | Danish GambitC21 · for White | 15%within 10 moves · 1.2M games | 53% for White+18 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 6…Bxc3+ 36.1% play itMistake | their better move: Nf6the answer: 7.Bxc3 Nf6 8.e5 |
| 24 | Bishop's OpeningC23 · for White | 14%within 10 moves · 30M games | 51% for White+20 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 2…Qh4 3.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6 |
| 25 | Sicilian KanB41 · for Black | 14%within 10 moves · 31K games | 53% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 5.e5 6.3% play itMistake | their better move: c4 |
| 26 | Marshall AttackC89 · for Black | 13%within 11 moves · 1.5K games | — | 10.cxd4 56.7% play itBlunder · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 10…dxe4 |
| 27 | Slav DefenseD15 · for Black | 13%within 10 moves · 2.3M games | 45% for Black+11 pts well prepared43% win chance after move 11 | 3.c5 7.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3 |
| 28 | Tarrasch DefenseD32 · for Black | 12%within 10 moves · 130K games | 47% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4.e4 5.7% play itMistake | their better move: cxd5 |
| 29 | Evans GambitC51 · for White | 11%within 10 moves · 325K games | 56% for White+12 pts well prepared62% win chance after move 11 | 5…Nxb4 29.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: a6the answer: 6.a5 Bc5 7.c3 |
| 30 | Caro-Kann Panov AttackB14 · for White | 11%within 10 moves · 107K games | 52% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 5…Bf5 15.3% play itMistake · wins a pawn · verified d30 | their better move: e6the answer: 6.Qb3 Qb6 7.cxd5 |
| 31 | Ruy LopezC60 · for White | 10%within 10 moves · 15M games | 52% for White+14 pts well prepared59% win chance after move 11 | 4…a6 14% play itMistake · wins a piece · verified d30 | their better move: Nxe4the answer: 5.Bxc6 dxc6 6.Nxe5 |
| 32 | English OpeningA10 · for White | 10%within 10 moves · 12M games | 50% for White+14 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 2…c6 6.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 3.Nf3 d6 4.d4 |
| 33 | Caro-Kann AdvanceB12 · for White | 10%within 9 moves · 2.9M games | 50% for White+9 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 3…Nd7 3.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: c5 |
| 34 | French WinawerC15 · for Black | 9%within 11 moves · 247K games | 48% for Blackwell prepared: too few games44% win chance after move 11 | 4.Nf3 4.9% play itMistake | their better move: e5 |
| 35 | Sicilian NajdorfB90 · for Black | 9%within 10 moves · 136K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6.Bf4 4.9% play itBlunder | their better move: Be2 |
| 36 | Réti OpeningA04 · for White | 9%within 10 moves · 300K games | 50% for Whitewell prepared: too few games55% win chance after move 11 | 3…e5 7.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: g6 |
| 37 | London SystemD00 · for White | 8%within 10 moves · 143M games | 51% for White+11 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 1…e5 8.3% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6the answer: 2.dxe5 Nc6 3.Nf3 |
| 38 | King's Indian DefenseE60 · for Black | 8%within 11 moves · 397K games | 48% for Black+8 pts well prepared46% win chance after move 11 | 5.e5 8.9% play itMistake | their better move: Be2 |
| 39 | Sicilian vs Anti-SiciliansB50 · for Black | 8%within 10 moves · 31M games | 49% for Black+15 pts well prepared50% win chance after move 11 | 2.Qh5 3.9% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3 |
| 40 | Grünfeld DefenseD80 · for Black | 8%within 11 moves · 46K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4.e4 3.5% play itMistake | their better move: Nf3 |
| 41 | Open Ruy LopezC80 · for Black | 7%within 11 moves · 42K games | 38% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6.d3 6.7% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d4 |
| 42 | Traxler CounterattackC57 · for Black | 6%within 9 moves · 594K games | 45% for Blackwell prepared: too few games44% win chance after move 11 | 5.O-O 3.9% play itMistake | their better move: Nxf7the answer: 5…O-O 6.d3 d5 |
| 43 | Vienna GameC25 · for White | 5%within 10 moves · 18M games | 50% for White+15 pts well prepared57% win chance after move 11 | 2…Qf6 2.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf6 |
| 44 | Sicilian DragonB70 · for Black | 4%within 11 moves · 98K games | 48% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6.Bf4 4.2% play itMistake | their better move: Be3 |
| 45 | Nimzo-Indian DefenseE20 · for Black | 4%within 10 moves · 157K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4.e4 4.1% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nf3 |
| 46 | French TarraschC03 · for White | 3%within 11 moves · 43K games | 52% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4…cxd4 5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: exd5 |
| 47 | Queen's Gambit ExchangeD35 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 100K games | 51% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 4…Bb4 2.1% play itBlunder | their better move: exd5 |
| 48 | Sicilian ScheveningenB80 · for Black | 3%within 10 moves · 17K games | — | 6.Bf4 3% play itBlunder | their better move: Be3 |
| 49 | Sicilian AlapinB22 · for White | 3%within 10 moves · 939K games | 51% for White+12 pts well prepared55% win chance after move 11 | 3…Ne4 18.5% play itBlunder · wins material · verified d30 | their better move: Nd5the answer: 4.d3 Nxf2 5.Kxf2 |
| 50 | Philidor DefenseC41 · for Black | 3%within 9 moves · 20M games | 45% for Black+11 pts well prepared40% win chance after move 11 | 4.d5 9.5% play itMistake · wins a pawn | their better move: Nc3the answer: 4…Nxe4 5.Bd3 Nf6 |
| 51 | Queen's Gambit DeclinedD30 · for Black | 3%within 11 moves · 984K games | 45% for Black+10 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 4.e4 2.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: cxd5 |
| 52 | Classical SicilianB56 · for Black | 3%within 10 moves · 77K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6.Bd3 2.6% play itBlunder | their better move: Bg5 |
| 53 | Sicilian MoscowB51 · for White | 2%within 10 moves · 220K games | 47% for Whitewell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6…O-O-O 11.4% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: d5the answer: 7.d4 cxd4 8.cxd4 |
| 54 | Trompowsky AttackA45 · for White | 2%within 7 moves · 404K games | 48% for Whitewell prepared: too few games49% win chance after move 11 | 3…Nxe4 4.3% play itBlunder | their better move: h6 |
| 55 | King's Indian AttackA05 · for White | 1%within 10 moves · 4.9K games | — | 8…Nd4 7.8% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: e5the answer: 9.e5 Nxf3+ 10.Qxf3 |
| 56 | Accelerated DragonB35 · for Black | 1%within 11 moves · 144K games | 52% for Black+13 pts well prepared50% win chance after move 11 | 6.Nxc6 45.2% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: Nc3the answer: 6…dxc6 7.Qxd8+ Kxd8 |
| 57 | Sicilian TaimanovB44 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 139K games | 49% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | 6.Bd3 3.1% play itBlunder | their better move: Be3 |
| 58 | Ruy Lopez BerlinC65 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 4.3M games | 43% for Black+17 pts well prepared41% win chance after move 11 | 5.Nxe5 2.4% play itMistake | their better move: Re1 |
| 59 | Queen's Gambit AcceptedD20 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 7.3M games | 42% for Black+20 pts well prepared37% win chance after move 11 | 4.e4 4.7% play itMistake | their better move: e3 |
| 60 | Torre AttackA46 · for White | 1%within 9 moves · 2.4M games | 48% for White+12 pts well prepared53% win chance after move 11 | 5…e6 3% play itMistake | their better move: d5 |
| 61 | Queen's Indian DefenseE12 · for Black | 1%within 10 moves · 13K games | — | 6.Bg5 2.5% play itMistake | their better move: d5 |
| 62 | Sicilian RossolimoB30 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 573K games | 50% for White+15 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 5…Qb6 3.1% play itMistake | their better move: e5 |
| 63 | Dutch DefenseA80 · for Black | <1%within 9 moves · 2.0M games | 45% for Black+14 pts well prepared44% win chance after move 11 | 4.c5 2.8% play itMistake | their better move: Nf3 |
| 64 | Colle SystemD05 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 1.8M games | 50% for White+10 pts well prepared54% win chance after move 11 | 6…c4 16.5% play itMistake · verified d30 | their better move: b6the answer: 7.Bc2 Bd6 8.e4 |
| 65 | French AdvanceC02 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 4.2M games | 49% for White+15 pts well prepared52% win chance after move 11 | 7…Nge7 19.3% play itMistake | their better move: Na5the answer: 8.Bxc4 dxc4 9.Nxc4 |
| 66 | Leningrad DutchA87 · for Black | <1%within 10 moves · 2.6K games | — | — | — |
| 67 | Closed SicilianB23 · for White | <1%within 9 moves · 3.0M games | 47% for White+14 pts well prepared51% win chance after move 11 | — | — |
| 68 | Sicilian SveshnikovB33 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 28K games | 50% for Blackwell prepared: too few gameswin chance after move 11: too few games | — | — |
| 69 | Catalan OpeningE01 · for White | <1%within 10 moves · 12K games | — | — | — |
| 70 | Bogo-Indian DefenseE11 · for Black | <1%within 11 moves · 32K games | — | — | — |
Shares are of Lichess blitz, rapid, classical games in this band that reached each opening’s root position; every reply is graded against Stockfish at depth 20 with the game review’s labels and close calls re-graded at depth 30; each figure is a lower bound. 70 of 70 openings are measured at this level. Reply data mined 2026-10-03.
Win rates are wins of the owning side over every rated Lichess blitz, rapid and classical game that reached the opening’s root position in May and June 2026, banded by the average of both ratings; “well prepared” is the win rate of players who were never the first to leave established theory, and no mistake or blunder before move 11, minus the win rate of every evaluated game in the band, in points; “win chance after move 11” is the owning side’s mean win probability at that point over evaluated games. Floors: 1.0K games, 1.0K evaluated games, 300 well-prepared games. How these are measured.
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